TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451454
Played Aug 18Finished
Oleh Hudyma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311311118211311
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Hudyma above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Hudyma 5–7 Yaroslav Tebenko Oleh Hudyma has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:35What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hudyma 1474 vs Tebenko 1553
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hudyma 20% vs Tebenko 40%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hudyma 10% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hudyma -3 · Tebenko +2
Hudyma
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHudyma 1.91 / Tebenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12451454
Hudyma1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Tebenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 69 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHudyma3wins
AwayTebenko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHudyma50%2 of 4
AwayTebenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hudyma4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S2Hudyma7Tebenko3n = 10Hudyma took 7 of 10
S3Hudyma3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S4Hudyma1Tebenko5n = 6Tebenko took 5 of 6
S5Hudyma1Tebenko3n = 4Tebenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHudymaTebenkoH − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.4−2.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHudymaTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 130 vs 376 / 80455.4%46.8%72 / 130 vs 376 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoHudyma 1.91/Tebenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 14:35O. Hudyma—10850Y. Tebenko—1211113
WJul 7 · 14:35O. Hudyma—11131310123Y. Tebenko—9111512102
LJul 1 · 11:05O. Hudyma—1011991Y. Tebenko—12611113
LJun 23 · 14:35O. Hudyma—71080Y. Tebenko—1112113
WMay 18 · 14:35O. Hudyma—51111113Y. Tebenko—118971
LMar 24 · 19:05O. Hudyma—91211642Y. Tebenko—1110711113
LJan 31 · 15:25O. Hudyma—88100Y. Tebenko—1111113
LJan 24 · 17:25O. Hudyma—11116682Y. Tebenko—27111193
WNov 11 · 17:35O. Hudyma—1111123Y. Tebenko—75100
LNov 4 · 15:35O. Hudyma—12117442Y. Tebenko—1061111113
O. Hudyma10
WSep 5 · 17:55S. Prus2.0096140O. Hudyma1.731111163WSep 5 · 16:55O. Hudyma1.50131179163I. Kvak2.501151111142LSep 5 · 15:55O. Hudyma2.2591171342I. Pytsko1.57113111183LSep 5 · 14:25O. Hudyma1.831061111102O. Sydorchuk1.83121132123LSep 5 · 12:25O. Hudyma1.5761112592M. Slozka2.251161011113LAug 18 · 18:05V. Kovalchuk1.505111012113O. Hudyma2.50118121072LAug 18 · 17:05O. Hudyma1.80118791I. Fashchevskyi1.9191111113LAug 18 · 16:05O. Hudyma1.80711791Y. Parahailo1.9111611113LAug 18 · 12:35O. Hudyma2.00119981O. Storozhenko1.7391111113LAug 11 · 18:05O. Hudyma2.208980V. Kovalchuk1.611111113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862
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