TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12449982
Played Aug 18Finished
Michal Wollny
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118611118911
Lukas Velebil
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Wollny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Wollny above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Michal Wollny at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Michal Wollny 2–0 Lukas Velebil Lukas Velebil has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wollny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wollny 1781 vs Velebil 1711
Wollny
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wollny 40% vs Velebil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wollny 60% vs Velebil 30%
Wollny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wollny -1 · Velebil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wollny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wollny form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWollny 1.73 / Velebil 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wollny)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12449982
Wollny1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 24 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Velebil2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 6 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeWollny2wins
AwayVelebil0wins
Wollny leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricWollnyVelebilW − VBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.533.5+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWollnyVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 234 vs 39 / 7253.4%54.2%125 / 234 vs 39 / 72Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WollnyWollny 1.73/Velebil 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wollny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 1 · 19:30M. Wollny—121511123L. Velebil—10177101
WFeb 17 · 21:00M. Wollny—1111113L. Velebil—8780
M. Wollny10
LSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113LSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781LSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113WSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:00M. Wollny1.6111118113R. Urbaniec2.20941171WSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113WSep 1 · 18:00M. Wollny1.801111910113V. Burdik1.9148111272LAug 18 · 16:58M. Wollny1.7371350V. Burdik2.001115113WAug 18 · 16:30M. Wollny1.8013811113V. Burdik1.911111851
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931
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