TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12450027
Played Aug 18Finished
Michal Wollny
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311811118115––
Vitezslav Burdik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Wollny to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Wollny above · Vitezslav Burdik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 78 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Michal Wollny at 54.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Wollny 5–4 Vitezslav Burdik Vitezslav Burdik has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:12What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wollny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wollny 1768 vs Burdik 1723
Wollny
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wollny 40% vs Burdik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wollny 60% vs Burdik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wollny -2 · Burdik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wollny) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burdik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWollny 1.80 / Burdik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wollny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12450027
Wollny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 24 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Burdik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 15 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back19% 3 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeWollny5wins
AwayBurdik4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderWollny leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWollny66.7%2 of 3
AwayBurdik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wollny3Burdik6n = 9Burdik took 6 of 9
S2Wollny4Burdik5n = 9Burdik took 5 of 9
S3Wollny6Burdik3n = 9Wollny took 6 of 9
S4Wollny4Burdik4n = 8split evenly
S5Wollny2Burdik1n = 3Wollny took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricWollnyBurdikW − BBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match41.139.1+2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWollnyBurdikBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 235 vs 94 / 18853.2%50%125 / 235 vs 94 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WollnyWollny 1.80/Burdik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wollny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wollny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 25 · 20:00M. Wollny—91111113V. Burdik—117251
LJun 23 · 19:00M. Wollny—751191V. Burdik—11113113
WJun 21 · 07:00M. Wollny—111011113V. Burdik—712671
WJun 14 · 21:30M. Wollny—711114113V. Burdik—11851192
LJun 14 · 20:00M. Wollny—1710671V. Burdik—151211113
WNov 7 · 19:30M. Wollny—611135113V. Burdik—116111182
WSep 4 · 19:30M. Wollny—12119113V. Burdik—1011161
LAug 27 · 18:00M. Wollny—59141192V. Burdik—1111128113
LAug 19 · 18:30M. Wollny—912110V. Burdik—1114133
M. Wollny10
LSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113LSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781LSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113WSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:00M. Wollny1.6111118113R. Urbaniec2.20941171WSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113WSep 1 · 18:00M. Wollny1.801111910113V. Burdik1.9148111272LAug 18 · 16:58M. Wollny1.7371350V. Burdik2.001115113LAug 18 · 15:00M. Wollny1.7341161192L. Velebil2.00118118113
V. Burdik10
WSep 3 · 21:00V. Burdik2.00111411113M. Wollny1.73516781LSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113LSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123WSep 3 · 18:00M. Wollny1.7361111852V. Burdik2.00119711113LSep 1 · 21:28M. Wollny1.731011911113V. Burdik2.0012711882WSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571WSep 1 · 19:00V. Burdik2.0091111123R. Urbaniec1.731185101LSep 1 · 18:00M. Wollny1.801111910113V. Burdik1.9148111272WAug 18 · 16:58M. Wollny1.7371350V. Burdik2.001115113LAug 18 · 15:30V. Burdik2.5064100M. Grundel1.501111123
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