TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12432103
Played Aug 14Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.86
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111611911131210
Karol Jablonski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:31 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
41111611911131210
H2H Mariusz Adamus 4–1 Karol Jablonski Karol Jablonski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jablonski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Adamus
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1340 vs Jablonski 1342
Jablonski
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Jablonski 40%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Jablonski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Jablonski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jablonski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.86 / Jablonski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+4.8pp
TT Elite Series · #12432103
Adamus1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 168 of 397
Down 0–1, comes back24% 49 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 107
Jablonski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 14 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayJablonski1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderAdamus leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus80%4 of 5
AwayJablonskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Jablonski0n = 5Adamus took 5 of 5
S2Adamus3Jablonski2n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
S3Adamus4Jablonski1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricAdamusJablonskiA − JBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match40.432.4+8.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusJablonskiBasisWin rate · lifetime773 / 1605 vs 66 / 14848.2%44.6%773 / 1605 vs 66 / 148Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.86/Jablonski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 8 · 17:10M. Adamus—1111113K. Jablonski—7680
WJul 5 · 03:35M. Adamus—117118113K. Jablonski—91191182
WJul 3 · 18:00M. Adamus—1411113K. Jablonski—12670
LMar 25 · 15:45M. Adamus—119101192K. Jablonski—711124113
WMar 25 · 12:05M. Adamus—1111133K. Jablonski—57110
M. Adamus10
WSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181LSep 9 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.10511711113M. Adamus1.6711811692LSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 05:10M. Adamus1.8311611123O. Sokolowski1.866114101LSep 9 · 04:00M. Adamus1.57971191M. Sikon2.1611116113WSep 9 · 02:20M. Adamus1.851111113M. Paszkiewicz1.854940WSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113LSep 9 · 24:00M. Sikon2.20111211113M. Adamus1.58714891LSep 8 · 23:10M. Adamus1.8088111152O. Sokolowski1.86111155113WSep 8 · 22:00M. Adamus2.43116711113M. Lebek1.4591111662
K. Jablonski10
LSep 10 · 05:30K. Adamus1.50111011133K. Jablonski2.317125111LAug 14 · 16:40K. Jablonski6.706817101P. Polok1.06111115123WAug 14 · 15:05M. Adamus3.00611111182K. Jablonski1.33111355113WAug 14 · 14:20O. Sokolowski2.358111281K. Jablonski1.5211414113WAug 14 · 13:30K. Jablonski2.35611911113J. Kaczmarek1.5011611982WAug 14 · 12:20K. Jablonski3.651111116113W. Tobiasz1.2361371182LAug 14 · 10:40K. Jablonski4.307119121P. Polok1.2011911143LAug 14 · 08:20W. Tobiasz1.8311129143K. Jablonski1.8671011121WAug 14 · 07:30K. Jablonski1.8511118113J. Kaczmarek1.85651131LAug 14 · 06:20K. Jablonski2.1586100O. Sokolowski1.601111123
Upcoming Matches
M. Adamus
Nothing scheduled
K. Jablonski
Sep 10 · 07:10K. Jablonski2.45K. Hetnar1.49—Sep 10 · 07:55K. Jablonski1.66W. Glanowski2.00—Sep 10 · 09:55K. Jablonski2.60O. Jadach1.40—Sep 10 · 10:40K. Jablonski1.81J. Pelka1.83—Sep 10 · 11:30K. Jablonski2.55K. Hetnar1.41—Sep 10 · 13:10K. Jablonski2.31K. Adamus1.50—Sep 10 · 13:55K. Jablonski1.66W. Glanowski2.00—Sep 10 · 15:55K. Jablonski2.60O. Jadach1.40—Sep 10 · 16:40K. Jablonski1.81J. Pelka1.83—
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