TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427952
Played Aug 15Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210118––––
Oleksii Gazhula
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleksii Gazhula below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 61 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 70.8%
61 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 13–6 Oleksii Gazhula Oleksii Gazhula has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Potapov
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1544 vs Gazhula 1496
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Gazhula 80%
Gazhula
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Gazhula 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +2 · Gazhula +4
Gazhula
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gazhula form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.53 / Gazhula 2.38
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Potapov)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12427952
Potapov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 29 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Gazhula2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov6wins
AwayGazhula4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov66.7%4 of 6
AwayGazhula50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov6Gazhula4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S2Potapov5Gazhula5n = 10split evenly
S3Potapov6Gazhula4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S4Potapov4Gazhula2n = 6Potapov took 4 of 6
S5Potapov1Gazhula2n = 3Gazhula took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovGazhulaP − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.433.7+3.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovGazhulaBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 376 vs 235 / 48646.3%48.4%174 / 376 vs 235 / 486Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.53/Gazhula 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 25 · 08:25M. Potapov—51111113O. Gazhula—119791
WJul 24 · 11:55M. Potapov—11811113O. Gazhula—611271
WJun 26 · 17:55M. Potapov—1112103O. Gazhula—61080
WJun 26 · 02:15M. Potapov—1111810113O. Gazhula—73111252
WJun 18 · 08:55M. Potapov—1113113O. Gazhula—31140
LJun 17 · 12:25M. Potapov—111071172O. Gazhula—712115113
LFeb 11 · 05:25M. Potapov—2980O. Gazhula—1111113
LFeb 10 · 12:55M. Potapov—11911892O. Gazhula—911711113
LJan 4 · 01:30M. Potapov—10560O. Gazhula—1211113
WDec 24 · 17:55M. Potapov—71311113O. Gazhula—1111471
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
O. Gazhula10
WAug 15 · 17:55O. Gazhula2.001111113T. Gil1.732660WAug 15 · 16:25O. Gazhula1.83141193O. Lutsyshyn1.8312880LAug 15 · 14:55O. Gazhula1.5012101071M. Slozka2.50101212113LAug 15 · 13:25O. Gazhula1.83116111172I. Pytsko1.83511813113LAug 15 · 11:55O. Gazhula1.837101161V. Hrybeniuk1.8311125113WAug 15 · 01:15O. Gazhula1.8320149113V. Hrybeniuk1.8318121171WAug 15 · 24:15O. Gazhula1.91111011113I. Pytsko1.80512861WAug 14 · 22:45O. Gazhula1.6716111011133M. Slozka2.10185124112WAug 14 · 20:45O. Gazhula1.9111113113O. Lutsyshyn1.80381131LAug 9 · 10:25I. Fashchevskyi2.00116116113O. Gazhula1.7391131182
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