TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378892
Played Aug 8Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
5.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1196119111214––
Serhii Kyienko
Away
1.14
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched — 88.4% is still 88.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kyienko to win
88.4%
88.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Serhii Kyienko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 83 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Serhii Kyienko at 88.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 0–5 Serhii Kyienko Vasiliy Smyk has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Kyienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Kyienko
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1454 vs Kyienko 1639
Kyienko
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Kyienko 80%
Kyienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Kyienko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Kyienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Kyienko) · live re-read · sealed at 88% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 5.00 / Kyienko 1.14
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Kyienko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378892
Smyk5.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 89 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kyienko1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite74% won 20 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSmyk0wins
AwayKyienko5wins
Kyienko leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKyienko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk1Kyienko4n = 5Kyienko took 4 of 5
S2Smyk0Kyienko5n = 5Kyienko took 5 of 5
S3Smyk1Kyienko4n = 5Kyienko took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricSmykKyienkoS − KBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match27.237.8−10.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykKyienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 627 vs 105 / 18742%56.2%263 / 627 vs 105 / 187Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyienkoSmyk 5.00/Kyienko 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.4%
Kyienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kyienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 8 · 17:00V. Smyk381169121S. Kyienko4591111143
LSep 7 · 06:20V. Smyk359412101S. Kyienko44111110123
LAug 18 · 08:35V. Smyk187920S. Kyienko331111113
LJul 13 · 06:20V. Smyk2110470S. Kyienko341211113
LJan 26 · 10:20V. Smyk249690S. Kyienko331111113
V. Smyk10
WSep 16 · 18:00F. Voinarovskyi1.831171061V. Smyk1.8371112113LSep 16 · 16:00V. Smyk1.91571191A. Kurtenko1.8011116113LSep 16 · 14:30V. Smyk3.50671171B. Zaika1.2811116113WSep 16 · 12:30V. Smyk1.44117914113O. Ovsiienko2.63911111252LSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991
S. Kyienko10
LSep 18 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.5081311113S. Kyienko1.501111871LSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133WAug 8 · 19:00S. Kyienko1.731111113O. Osadchyi2.009790WAug 8 · 15:00V. Melnykov4.008670S. Kyienko1.221111113LAug 8 · 14:00S. Kyienko1.408680O. Lipeiko2.75111182WAug 8 · 13:00O. Tymofeev2.63117351S. Kyienko1.4491111113WMay 2 · 12:05S. Kyienko1.611311113V. Kryvenko2.2011390WMay 2 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.91115861S. Kyienko1.8091111113WMay 2 · 08:05Y. Volkov2.6311411762S. Kyienko1.44511911113WMay 2 · 07:05S. Kyienko2.10111211113A. Troyan1.671310981
Upcoming Matches
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S. Kyienko
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