TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378995
Played Aug 8Finished
Serhii Kyienko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117119––––
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:02 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kyienko to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kyienko above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Kyienko at 59.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kyienko 1–0 Oleksandr Osadchyi Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kyienko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kyienko 1639 vs Osadchyi 1570
Kyienko
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kyienko 80% vs Osadchyi 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kyienko 80% vs Osadchyi 60%
Kyienko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kyienko +2 · Osadchyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kyienko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKyienko 1.73 / Osadchyi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kyienko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12378995
Kyienko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite74% won 20 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Osadchyi2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 120 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back24% 31 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back9% 7 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKyienko1wins
AwayOsadchyi0wins
Kyienko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKyienkoOsadchyiK − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.025.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyienkoOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 187 vs 437 / 86956.2%50.3%105 / 187 vs 437 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyienkoKyienko 1.73/Osadchyi 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kyienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kyienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 8 · 19:00S. Kyienko331111113O. Osadchyi259790
S. Kyienko10
LSep 18 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.5081311113S. Kyienko1.501111871LSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133WAug 8 · 17:00V. Smyk5.001169121S. Kyienko1.1491111143WAug 8 · 15:00V. Melnykov4.008670S. Kyienko1.221111113LAug 8 · 14:00S. Kyienko1.408680O. Lipeiko2.75111182WAug 8 · 13:00O. Tymofeev2.63117351S. Kyienko1.4491111113WMay 2 · 12:05S. Kyienko1.611311113V. Kryvenko2.2011390WMay 2 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.91115861S. Kyienko1.8091111113WMay 2 · 08:05Y. Volkov2.6311411762S. Kyienko1.44511911113WMay 2 · 07:05S. Kyienko2.10111211113A. Troyan1.671310981
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko2.20101111161O. Osadchyi1.6112813183WSep 17 · 10:35O. Volynets2.38116118102O. Osadchyi1.53511611123LSep 17 · 09:05I. Emets2.0011111113O. Osadchyi1.73117971WSep 17 · 07:05F. Voinarovskyi2.2011121101O. Osadchyi1.6113147113LSep 17 · 05:05V. Kolesnykov1.5011115113O. Osadchyi2.50371181LSep 15 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.4411681162S. Skhabitskiy2.63711117113WSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080LSep 15 · 08:05O. Osadchyi4.001011651A. Martyniuk1.2212611113WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870
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