TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148563
Played Sep 18Finished
Serhii Kyienko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169117111113––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kyienko to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kyienko above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Serhii Kyienko at 64.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kyienko 3–1 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kyienko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kyienko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kyienko 1614 vs Karpenko 1591
Kyienko
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kyienko 100% vs Karpenko 40%
Kyienko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kyienko 90% vs Karpenko 30%
Kyienko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kyienko +9 · Karpenko -1
Kyienko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kyienko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kyienko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKyienko 1.44 / Karpenko 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Kyienko)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13148563
Kyienko1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite83% won 15 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Karpenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back18% 11 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKyienko3wins
AwayKarpenko1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKyienko leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKyienko66.7%2 of 3
AwayKarpenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kyienko3Karpenko1n = 4Kyienko took 3 of 4
S2Kyienko3Karpenko1n = 4Kyienko took 3 of 4
S3Kyienko0Karpenko4n = 4Karpenko took 4 of 4
S4Kyienko3Karpenko1n = 4Kyienko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKyienkoKarpenkoKyienko − KarpenkoBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.538.0+5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyienkoKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 173 vs 363 / 69756.1%52.1%97 / 173 vs 363 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KyienkoKyienko 1.44/Karpenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Kyienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko381197111O. Karpenko4161111133
WDec 1 · 09:35S. Kyienko578111413113O. Karpenko46112161162
WOct 8 · 09:30S. Kyienko4011115133O. Karpenko336511111
WSep 1 · 06:35S. Kyienko3911115123O. Karpenko324711101
S. Kyienko10
LSep 18 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.5081311113S. Kyienko1.501111871WAug 8 · 19:00S. Kyienko1.731111113O. Osadchyi2.009790WAug 8 · 17:00V. Smyk5.001169121S. Kyienko1.1491111143WAug 8 · 15:00V. Melnykov4.008670S. Kyienko1.221111113LAug 8 · 14:00S. Kyienko1.408680O. Lipeiko2.75111182WAug 8 · 13:00O. Tymofeev2.63117351S. Kyienko1.4491111113WMay 2 · 12:05S. Kyienko1.611311113V. Kryvenko2.2011390WMay 2 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.91115861S. Kyienko1.8091111113WMay 2 · 08:05Y. Volkov2.6311411762S. Kyienko1.44511911113WMay 2 · 07:05S. Kyienko2.10111211113A. Troyan1.671310981
O. Karpenko10
LSep 18 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4081211113O. Karpenko2.751110791WSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113LSep 15 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6761111113O. Karpenko2.10118941WSep 15 · 08:30I. Emets3.2581191182O. Karpenko1.33118118113LSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270
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