TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130363
Played Sep 15Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118119114––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Andrey Troyan at 55.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 43–36 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 36 of their 79 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-36 in 79
Troyan
Correct
gap of 7 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1641 vs Karpenko 1584
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 40% vs Karpenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 50% vs Karpenko 30%
Troyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan +2 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Troyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 1.67 / Karpenko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Troyan)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13130363
Troyan1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 177 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it93% 98 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it79% 135 of 172
Karpenko2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan5wins
AwayKarpenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKarpenko62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan2Karpenko8n = 10Karpenko took 8 of 10
S2Troyan5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Troyan6Karpenko4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S4Troyan4Karpenko2n = 6Troyan took 4 of 6
S5Troyan2Karpenko1n = 3Troyan took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKarpenkoT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.136.9+0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 986 vs 363 / 69747.5%52.1%468 / 986 vs 363 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanTroyan 1.67/Karpenko 2.10
Hit
What we said
55.8%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan41541111102O. Karpenko44111155123
WSep 11 · 10:00A. Troyan331111113O. Karpenko163850
WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan516121111113O. Karpenko4811146892
LAug 31 · 10:00A. Troyan369111151O. Karpenko4211713113
LAug 26 · 10:35A. Troyan32711951O. Karpenko3811511113
LAug 25 · 10:00A. Troyan2481060O. Karpenko341112113
WAug 17 · 10:00A. Troyan371113133O. Karpenko31911110
WAug 11 · 10:30A. Troyan526131111113O. Karpenko5211158992
WAug 6 · 10:35A. Troyan4181111113O. Karpenko30115951
LAug 4 · 06:35A. Troyan2471070O. Karpenko341112113
A. Troyan10
WSep 15 · 11:30V. Bilobrov2.502950A. Troyan1.501111113WSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011911482A. Troyan2.50711311113WSep 15 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov3.00119331A. Troyan1.3681111113LSep 15 · 05:00I. Emets1.3611512113A. Troyan3.006111081LSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:05A. Obishchenko1.251114113A. Troyan3.7581250WSep 14 · 08:05Y. Volkov1.67711451A. Troyan2.1011911113LSep 14 · 07:05A. Troyan2.5079111152Y. Holoborodko1.50111197113WSep 14 · 06:05V. Ishchuk1.801011871A. Troyan1.9112711113WSep 12 · 12:05V. Bilobrov2.204101151A. Troyan1.6111127113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113WSep 15 · 08:30I. Emets3.2581191182O. Karpenko1.33118118113LSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270WSep 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.4011881152O. Karpenko2.75111117113LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131
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