TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130349
Played Sep 15Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811118211––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 68 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 58.1%
68 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 22–14 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1652 vs Karpenko 1574
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 80% vs Karpenko 40%
Kovshun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 90% vs Karpenko 30%
Kovshun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun +1 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.61 / Karpenko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kovshun)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130349
Kovshun1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 94 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it81% 67 of 83
Karpenko2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun6wins
AwayKarpenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun100%4 of 4
AwayKarpenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun6Karpenko4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S3Kovshun5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovshun6Karpenko3n = 9Kovshun took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunKarpenkoKovshun − KarpenkoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.3+3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 636 vs 363 / 69854.1%52%344 / 636 vs 363 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.61/Karpenko 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun4511149113O. Karpenko315121131
LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun4351181182O. Karpenko46117116113
WJul 24 · 07:05Y. Kovshun4212811113O. Karpenko331011751
LJul 9 · 06:00Y. Kovshun238960O. Karpenko331111113
WJul 3 · 06:35Y. Kovshun4391112113O. Karpenko311131071
WJun 30 · 10:40Y. Kovshun46117116113O. Karpenko3921161192
LJun 26 · 09:05Y. Kovshun381111791O. Karpenko3813311113
WMay 28 · 07:35Y. Kovshun3741111113O. Karpenko34116891
WMay 22 · 05:05Y. Kovshun4111118113O. Karpenko30951151
LMay 18 · 10:35Y. Kovshun37871751O. Karpenko48111115113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov2.63861181Y. Kovshun1.4411115113LSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011911482A. Troyan2.50711311113WSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881WSep 12 · 11:35Y. Volkov1.8011211762Y. Kovshun1.91611911113WSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113WSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113WSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113WSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131
O. Karpenko10
LSep 15 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6761111113O. Karpenko2.10118941WSep 15 · 08:30I. Emets3.2581191182O. Karpenko1.33118118113LSep 15 · 06:30V. Bilobrov2.751111113O. Karpenko1.404660LSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 14 · 12:05A. Troyan1.67541111102O. Karpenko2.10111155123LSep 14 · 10:35O. Karpenko2.75114371Y. Holoborodko1.4091111113LSep 14 · 08:35V. Ishchuk1.61116128113O. Karpenko2.20211101162LSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.401114113O. Karpenko2.7561270WSep 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.4011881152O. Karpenko2.75111117113LSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131
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