TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130377
Played Sep 15Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611115811––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 65.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 3–6 Yaroslav Kovshun Valerii Kolesnykov has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1590 vs Kovshun 1642
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 80% vs Kovshun 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 70% vs Kovshun 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +1 · Kovshun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 2.63 / Kovshun 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kovshun)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13130377
Kolesnykov2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 33 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back33% 13 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Kovshun1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 94 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it81% 67 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKolesnykov3wins
AwayKovshun6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov50%2 of 4
AwayKovshun80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov4Kovshun5n = 9Kovshun took 5 of 9
S2Kolesnykov0Kovshun9n = 9Kovshun took 9 of 9
S3Kolesnykov2Kovshun7n = 9Kovshun took 7 of 9
S4Kolesnykov3Kovshun2n = 5Kolesnykov took 3 of 5
S5Kolesnykov3Kovshun1n = 4Kolesnykov took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricKolesnykovKovshunKolesnykov − KovshunBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match32.739.8−7.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 664 vs 343 / 63553.3%54%354 / 664 vs 343 / 635Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKolesnykov 2.63/Kovshun 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 28 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov144370Y. Kovshun331111113
LJun 26 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov2771190Y. Kovshun351113113
WMay 28 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov48871111113Y. Kovshun4411116792
WMay 22 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov47117711113Y. Kovshun4171111842
LMay 14 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov331157101Y. Kovshun4171111123
LMay 4 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov2238110Y. Kovshun351111133
WFeb 19 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov48114811143Y. Kovshun50711119122
LFeb 10 · 08:35V. Kolesnykov3811611552Y. Kovshun46711611113
LDec 10 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov177280Y. Kovshun331111113
V. Kolesnykov10
WSep 15 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov1.5710111211133V. Bilobrov2.25125144112LSep 15 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov3.00119331A. Troyan1.3681111113WSep 15 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.8311211113O. Karpenko1.83811591WSep 10 · 11:05O. Volynets2.00102100V. Kolesnykov1.731211123WSep 10 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov1.731111113V. Vietrov2.005250LSep 10 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov3.00781141A. Troyan1.3611116113WSep 10 · 07:35V. Kolesnykov2.2512411123D. Khairov1.5710118101WSep 10 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov1.61111013113O. Osadchyi2.208121171LSep 7 · 10:30O. Osadchyi2.5011119143V. Kolesnykov1.509811121WSep 7 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.7381111113S. Solomko2.00118891
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 15 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.5011911482A. Troyan2.50711311113WSep 15 · 07:00I. Emets4.33411451Y. Kovshun1.2011211113WSep 15 · 05:30Y. Kovshun1.3611711113V. Bilobrov3.00711881WSep 12 · 11:35Y. Volkov1.8011211762Y. Kovshun1.91611911113WSep 12 · 10:35A. Troyan2.3811117972Y. Kovshun1.53641111113WSep 12 · 09:05A. Kotiash2.20111791182Y. Kovshun1.61219118113WSep 12 · 07:05V. Bilobrov2.505760Y. Kovshun1.501111113WSep 12 · 05:05I. Efimenko1.44103111242Y. Kovshun2.631211810113WSep 11 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.7311149113O. Karpenko2.005121131LSep 11 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.8091812113Y. Kovshun1.9111161051
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