TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12365832
Played Aug 5Finished
Tadeas Slivka
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171191311––––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
1.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTadeas Slivka above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 62 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 58.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Slivka 2–4 Lukas Krupnik Jr Tadeas Slivka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (56%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Jr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slivka 1372 vs Jr 1379
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slivka 100% vs Jr 60%
Slivka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slivka 70% vs Jr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slivka +5 · Jr +1
Slivka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slivka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlivka 2.05 / Jr 1.63
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Jr)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12365832
Slivka2.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 10 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back25% 3 of 12
Jr1.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 86 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it73% 62 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSlivka2wins
AwayJr4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderJr leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlivka33.3%1 of 3
AwayJr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slivka3Jr3n = 6split evenly
S2Slivka2Jr4n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S3Slivka2Jr4n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S4Slivka4Jr1n = 5Slivka took 4 of 5
S5Slivka1Jr3n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSlivkaJrS − JBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.544.3−5.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlivkaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 116 vs 196 / 37050%53%58 / 116 vs 196 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrSlivka 2.05/Jr 1.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Slivka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 5 · 10:45T. Slivka—511511113L. Jr—11711392
LJul 14 · 14:15T. Slivka—11911772L. Jr—811911113
LJun 8 · 15:15T. Slivka—75111252L. Jr—1111910113
LJun 4 · 13:40T. Slivka—3520L. Jr—1111113
WJun 2 · 13:10T. Slivka—11118113L. Jr—751181
LJun 2 · 10:15T. Slivka—127615122L. Jr—10111113143
T. Slivka10
LSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113LAug 20 · 17:10D. Stefek1.571311113T. Slivka2.2511660WAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr2.00119981T. Slivka1.7371111113WAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 14:10T. Slivka2.00551761D. Stefek1.73111115113LAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113LAug 19 · 11:40T. Slivka1.801011331D. Stefek1.9112911113LAug 19 · 10:40T. Slivka1.7311811572P. Sturma2.00611911113
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123LAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr2.00119981T. Slivka1.7371111113
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