TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Luis Kraus vs Marcel Neumaier 2-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Aug 3Finished
Luis Kraus
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119311116811611
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLuis Kraus above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 60.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Luis Kraus 1–2 Marcel Neumaier Luis Kraus has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kraus 1531 vs Neumaier 1566
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraus 20% vs Neumaier 60%
Neumaier
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraus 40% vs Neumaier 70%
Neumaier
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraus -4 · Neumaier +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Neumaier)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraus 2.38 / Neumaier 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Neumaier)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351766
Kraus2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Neumaier1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKraus1wins
AwayNeumaier2wins
Neumaier leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kraus1Neumaier2n = 3Neumaier took 2 of 3
S2Kraus1Neumaier2n = 3Neumaier took 2 of 3
S3Kraus1Neumaier2n = 3Neumaier took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKrausNeumaierK − NBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match31.735.3−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrausNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 228 vs 49 / 9237.3%53.3%85 / 228 vs 49 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match31.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierKraus 2.38/Neumaier 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WFeb 12 · 12:30L. Kraus3711411113M. Neumaier26311751
LJul 28 · 14:00L. Kraus2410860M. Neumaier341211113
LJul 11 · 08:00L. Kraus34815561M. Neumaier46111311113
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920
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