TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12331873
Played Aug 1Finished
Vladimir Svoboda
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111191816611112
Martin Stefek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Svoboda above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 18-16
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 101 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Martin Stefek at 69.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Svoboda 1–2 Martin Stefek Vladimir Svoboda has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1295 vs Stefek 1390
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Stefek 100%
Stefek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Stefek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Stefek +5
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.50 / Stefek 1.50
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Stefek)+7.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12331873
Svoboda2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 15 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Stefek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 132 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it89% 66 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayStefek2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStefek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S2Svoboda1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S3Svoboda1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSvobodaStefekSvoboda − StefekBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match41.742.7−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 120 vs 530 / 110648.3%47.9%58 / 120 vs 530 / 1106Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekSvoboda 2.50/Stefek 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 24 · 24:30V. Svoboda—8890M. Stefek—1111113
WApr 19 · 22:00V. Svoboda—111178123M. Stefek—671111102
LFeb 6 · 01:00V. Svoboda—1011111272M. Stefek—1213410113
V. Svoboda10
LAug 1 · 02:58M. Stefek1.61111177113V. Svoboda2.2046111162WAug 1 · 02:00J. Strnad1.831161041V. Svoboda1.8391112113LJul 31 · 23:00V. Svoboda2.201113101M. Novotny1.6181111123LJul 31 · 22:00P. Kulhanek1.9111119113V. Svoboda1.80971171WJul 27 · 03:30V. Svoboda1.2511128113J. Grohsgott3.355101171WJul 27 · 02:30V. Svoboda1.6761112113J. Potensky2.101121071WJul 27 · 01:30J. Grohsgott2.50119119102V. Svoboda1.50911611123WJul 27 · 24:00V. Svoboda1.4081111113J. Cernik2.75116971LJul 26 · 23:00A. Hejduk2.2011116113V. Svoboda1.61861131LJul 20 · 03:30L. Havel2.35911118113V. Svoboda1.5311351182
M. Stefek10
LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162WSep 7 · 22:00J. Framberk2.00105100M. Stefek1.731211123LSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792WAug 1 · 02:58M. Stefek1.61111177113V. Svoboda2.2046111162
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