TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12317236
Played Jul 29Finished
Dominik Marasek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711511––––
Martin Vana
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Vana to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Marasek above · Martin Vana below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 52 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Martin Vana at 65.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Marasek 4–8 Martin Vana Dominik Marasek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Vana
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marasek 1590 vs Vana 1626
Vana
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marasek 40% vs Vana 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marasek 40% vs Vana 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marasek +1 · Vana +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vana form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarasek 2.50 / Vana 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 66%
Edge (Vana)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12317236
Marasek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Vana1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite63% won 36 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it81% 30 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarasek4wins
AwayVana6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVana leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarasek66.7%2 of 3
AwayVana71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marasek3Vana7n = 10Vana took 7 of 10
S2Marasek6Vana4n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S3Marasek4Vana6n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S4Marasek2Vana6n = 8Vana took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarasekVanaM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.8−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarasekVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 224 vs 84 / 15250%55.3%112 / 224 vs 84 / 152Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaMarasek 2.50/Vana 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 25 · 13:15D. Marasek331111113M. Vana228770
LJan 15 · 15:15D. Marasek371410761M. Vana46121211113
LJan 14 · 15:45D. Marasek2612860M. Vana361411113
LNov 24 · 16:30D. Marasek26931131M. Vana4111118113
LSep 3 · 15:15D. Marasek336111331M. Vana4611915113
WJul 14 · 13:45D. Marasek48811117113M. Vana4011671152
WJun 20 · 16:11D. Marasek4211119113M. Vana24371131
WJun 20 · 15:15D. Marasek51991111113M. Vana3411112462
LApr 8 · 16:55D. Marasek33811771M. Vana4011711113
LApr 8 · 15:45D. Marasek318112101M. Vana3911511123
D. Marasek10
WSep 15 · 16:49D. Marasek1.831211113M. Hajek1.8310790LSep 15 · 15:45M. Hajek1.831117113D. Marasek1.8391570WSep 15 · 14:45P. Semrad1.57131011672D. Marasek2.251112911113WSep 15 · 13:15Z. Vasatko1.6771181182D. Marasek2.10119115113WSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172LSep 7 · 16:00D. Marasek2.10101111892P. Oplt1.67127511113WSep 7 · 14:30L. Smazik1.804630D. Marasek1.911111113LSep 7 · 14:00P. Semrad1.578111111113D. Marasek2.2511713292WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171
M. Vana10
LAug 3 · 08:13M. Vana2.1010880R. Pisa1.671211113WAug 3 · 07:15R. Pisa1.538101161M. Vana2.3811127113LAug 3 · 06:45M. Vana2.20651181M. Vyskocil1.6111116113LAug 3 · 05:45M. Vana1.916890M. Makara1.801111113LJul 29 · 20:43A. Radkovsky2.001111113M. Vana1.739460WJul 29 · 18:45M. Vana1.8091111133A. Radkovsky1.911167111LJul 29 · 17:45M. Vana1.6771111962P. Oplt2.10116711113WJul 27 · 08:20R. Pisa1.5011128772M. Vana2.507101111113LJul 27 · 07:15M. Vana2.201111971R. Pisa1.6131311113LJul 27 · 06:15M. Vana2.007490M. Vyskocil1.731111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.