TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352364
Played Aug 3Finished
Martin Vana
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Michal Makara
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vana above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Michal Makara at 54.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vana 2–8 Michal Makara Martin Vana has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Makara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Makara
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1626 vs Makara 1709
Makara
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 60% vs Makara 40%
Vana
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 50% vs Makara 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana -1 · Makara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Makara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.91 / Makara 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Makara)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12352364
Vana1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 10 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Makara1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it63% 20 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVana2wins
AwayMakara8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVana50%2 of 4
AwayMakara100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S2Vana5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Vana2Makara8n = 10Makara took 8 of 10
S4Vana4Makara4n = 8split evenly
S5Vana1Makara4n = 5Makara took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanaMakaraV − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.242.7−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 150 vs 466 / 95556%48.8%84 / 150 vs 466 / 955Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraVana 1.91/Makara 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 30 · 13:45M. Vana381111791M. Makara4213711113
WApr 15 · 08:27M. Vana50129117113M. Makara47101171182
LApr 15 · 07:30M. Vana52811613142M. Makara581191111163
LApr 1 · 16:18M. Vana46111071172M. Makara46712115113
WApr 1 · 14:15M. Vana4111118113M. Makara26461151
LFeb 18 · 17:24M. Vana49811121262M. Makara551191014113
LFeb 18 · 16:15M. Vana27112681M. Makara3961111113
LJan 28 · 14:30M. Vana2781180M. Makara351113113
LJan 21 · 17:50M. Vana49101191182M. Makara46129114103
LJan 21 · 15:45M. Vana238690M. Makara331111113
M. Vana10
LAug 3 · 08:13M. Vana2.1010880R. Pisa1.671211113WAug 3 · 07:15R. Pisa1.538101161M. Vana2.3811127113LAug 3 · 06:45M. Vana2.20651181M. Vyskocil1.6111116113LJul 29 · 20:43A. Radkovsky2.001111113M. Vana1.739460WJul 29 · 19:15D. Marasek2.507750M. Vana1.501111113WJul 29 · 18:45M. Vana1.8091111133A. Radkovsky1.911167111LJul 29 · 17:45M. Vana1.6771111962P. Oplt2.10116711113WJul 27 · 08:20R. Pisa1.5011128772M. Vana2.507101111113LJul 27 · 07:15M. Vana2.201111971R. Pisa1.6131311113LJul 27 · 06:15M. Vana2.007490M. Vyskocil1.731111113
M. Makara10
LSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173WSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113WSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 14 · 16:43M. Makara1.911111117113R. Pisa1.8081361172LSep 14 · 15:45R. Pisa1.7313712113M. Makara2.0011111081LSep 14 · 14:45S. Rejent1.67131158113M. Makara2.10116111182WSep 14 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2069111582M. Makara1.611111813113LSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska2.251611113M. Makara1.5714890WSep 13 · 10:45O. Mezera2.2511147101M. Makara1.5771611123
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