TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352456
Played Aug 3Finished
Martin Vana
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511116811––
Marek Vyskocil
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Vyskocil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vana above · Marek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Marek Vyskocil at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vana 2–7 Marek Vyskocil Martin Vana has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:48What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vyskocil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Vyskocil
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1603 vs Vyskocil 1585
Vana
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 40% vs Vyskocil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 50% vs Vyskocil 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana -2 · Vyskocil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Vyskocil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vyskocil form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 2.20 / Vyskocil 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Vyskocil)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12352456
Vana2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 11 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Vyskocil1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 79 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 62 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVana2wins
AwayVyskocil7wins
4 of 9 to a deciderVyskocil leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVyskocil85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana2Vyskocil7n = 9Vyskocil took 7 of 9
S2Vana4Vyskocil5n = 9Vyskocil took 5 of 9
S3Vana5Vyskocil4n = 9Vana took 5 of 9
S4Vana2Vyskocil5n = 7Vyskocil took 5 of 7
S5Vana1Vyskocil3n = 4Vyskocil took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricVanaVyskocilVana − VyskocilBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match37.842.6−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 150 vs 220 / 40955.3%53.8%83 / 150 vs 220 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VyskocilVana 2.20/Vyskocil 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.2%
Vyskocil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vyskocil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 3 · 06:45M. Vana30651181M. Vyskocil3911116113
LJul 27 · 06:15M. Vana207490M. Vyskocil331111113
LJul 13 · 05:15M. Vana48111214652M. Vyskocil5713101211113
LMay 25 · 14:15M. Vana1931060M. Vyskocil341112113
WMay 5 · 05:30M. Vana4181111113M. Vyskocil35119961
LFeb 18 · 22:15M. Vana45101111492M. Vyskocil47126711113
WFeb 18 · 21:00M. Vana551312109113M. Vyskocil521110121182
LJan 23 · 13:55M. Vana34951191M. Vyskocil3711115103
LJan 23 · 12:45M. Vana48116911112M. Vyskocil49711117133
M. Vana10
LAug 3 · 08:13M. Vana2.1010880R. Pisa1.671211113WAug 3 · 07:15R. Pisa1.538101161M. Vana2.3811127113LAug 3 · 05:45M. Vana1.916890M. Makara1.801111113LJul 29 · 20:43A. Radkovsky2.001111113M. Vana1.739460WJul 29 · 19:15D. Marasek2.507750M. Vana1.501111113WJul 29 · 18:45M. Vana1.8091111133A. Radkovsky1.911167111LJul 29 · 17:45M. Vana1.6771111962P. Oplt2.10116711113WJul 27 · 08:20R. Pisa1.5011128772M. Vana2.507101111113LJul 27 · 07:15M. Vana2.201111971R. Pisa1.6131311113LJul 27 · 06:15M. Vana2.007490M. Vyskocil1.731111113
M. Vyskocil10
WSep 15 · 12:13J. Dolezal1.836540M. Vyskocil1.831111113LSep 15 · 11:15M. Vyskocil1.831181011122J. Dolezal1.83711127143WSep 15 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.5771111113T. Liska2.25115861WSep 15 · 09:15M. Vyskocil1.911112113M. Kocvara1.8081090LSep 14 · 08:53M. Vyskocil2.205790L. Dobias1.611111113LSep 14 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7310111011113M. Vyskocil2.0012812572WSep 14 · 06:45T. Liska2.009680M. Vyskocil1.731111113WSep 14 · 05:15L. Rulc1.4411117692M. Vyskocil2.63781111113WSep 13 · 20:14M. Kocvara1.73511911102M. Vyskocil2.00114115123WJul 27 · 06:15M. Vana2.007490M. Vyskocil1.731111113
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