TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126427
Played Sep 14Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117118711611911
Marek Vyskocil
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Marek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 61.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 2–1 Marek Vyskocil Marek Vyskocil has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1609 vs Vyskocil 1708
Vyskocil
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 40% vs Vyskocil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 40% vs Vyskocil 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc -1 · Vyskocil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.44 / Vyskocil 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rulc)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13126427
Rulc1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 92 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it68% 63 of 93
Vyskocil2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 30 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRulc2wins
AwayVyskocil1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderRulc leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc1Vyskocil2n = 3Vyskocil took 2 of 3
S2Rulc3Vyskocil0n = 3Rulc took 3 of 3
S3Rulc1Vyskocil2n = 3Vyskocil took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricRulcVyskocilR − VBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.739.0+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 708 vs 223 / 41249.6%54.1%351 / 708 vs 223 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.44/Vyskocil 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vyskocil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 31 · 09:45L. Rulc44111181132M. Vyskocil48139114113
WAug 14 · 10:15L. Rulc341112113M. Vyskocil2351080
WJan 21 · 12:45L. Rulc44811311113M. Vyskocil4611711892
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662
M. Vyskocil10
WSep 13 · 20:14M. Kocvara1.73511911102M. Vyskocil2.00114115123LSep 13 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.8311101161M. Kocvara1.8311213113WSep 13 · 18:15M. Vyskocil2.5014612163J. Sr1.50121110141LSep 13 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.731111115112R. Pisa2.00913211133LSep 13 · 11:15M. Vyskocil1.6151111772O. Mezera2.20117711103WSep 13 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.7311119113T. Liska2.00591121LSep 13 · 09:15M. Vyskocil2.1010560M. Makara1.671211113LSep 7 · 12:23M. Vyskocil2.6311681182L. Adam1.44811117113WSep 7 · 11:45M. Vyskocil1.671081111123R. Pisa2.10121167102WAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132
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