TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12306680
Played Jul 27Finished
Martin Vana
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1131113911711––
Radovan Pisa
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vana above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vana 1–2 Radovan Pisa Martin Vana has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pisa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1622 vs Pisa 1618
Vana
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 40% vs Pisa 20%
Vana
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 40% vs Pisa 20%
Vana
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana -1 · Pisa -3
Pisa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pisa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 2.20 / Pisa 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Pisa)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12306680
Vana2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 10 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Pisa1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 83 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it69% 57 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVana1wins
AwayPisa2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPisa leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
S2Vana1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
S3Vana1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
S4Vana1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVanaPisaV − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.042.3−4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 150 vs 355 / 74655.3%47.6%83 / 150 vs 355 / 746Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PisaVana 2.20/Pisa 1.61
Hit
What we said
57.7%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 27 · 08:20M. Vana507101111113R. Pisa4511128772
LJul 27 · 07:15M. Vana381111971R. Pisa3831311113
LJul 13 · 06:45M. Vana26413361R. Pisa44111111113
M. Vana10
LAug 3 · 08:13M. Vana2.1010880R. Pisa1.671211113WAug 3 · 07:15R. Pisa1.538101161M. Vana2.3811127113LAug 3 · 06:45M. Vana2.20651181M. Vyskocil1.6111116113LAug 3 · 05:45M. Vana1.916890M. Makara1.801111113LJul 29 · 20:43A. Radkovsky2.001111113M. Vana1.739460WJul 29 · 19:15D. Marasek2.507750M. Vana1.501111113WJul 29 · 18:45M. Vana1.8091111133A. Radkovsky1.911167111LJul 29 · 17:45M. Vana1.6771111962P. Oplt2.10116711113WJul 27 · 08:20R. Pisa1.5011128772M. Vana2.507101111113LJul 27 · 06:15M. Vana2.007490M. Vyskocil1.731111113
R. Pisa10
LSep 15 · 09:04R. Pisa1.8376100L. Rulc1.831111123WSep 15 · 08:00R. Pisa1.73311811113J. Senk2.0011811752WSep 15 · 06:30M. Ullman1.837111361R. Pisa1.8311915113WSep 15 · 06:00L. Rulc1.9189120R. Pisa1.801111143LSep 14 · 16:43M. Makara1.911111117113R. Pisa1.8081361172WSep 14 · 15:45R. Pisa1.7313712113M. Makara2.0011111081WSep 14 · 14:15O. Mezera2.3891111852R. Pisa1.53118511113WAug 3 · 08:13M. Vana2.1010880R. Pisa1.671211113LAug 3 · 07:15R. Pisa1.538101161M. Vana2.3811127113LJul 27 · 08:20R. Pisa1.5011128772M. Vana2.507101111113
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