TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136593
Played Sep 16Finished
Ondrej Kaderabek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111113118711
Michal Makara
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 58.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 30–30 Michal Makara Dead even across their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:51What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kaderabek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-30 in 60
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1642 vs Makara 1672
Makara
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 60% vs Makara 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 30% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek +1 · Makara +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.61 / Makara 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kaderabek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136593
Kaderabek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 34 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Makara2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 158 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back25% 44 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek5wins
AwayMakara5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek57.1%4 of 7
AwayMakara66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek7Makara3n = 10Kaderabek took 7 of 10
S2Kaderabek5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaderabek3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S4Kaderabek5Makara3n = 8Kaderabek took 5 of 8
S5Kaderabek2Makara3n = 5Makara took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekMakaraK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.4+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 390 vs 500 / 104651.3%47.8%200 / 390 vs 500 / 1046Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekKaderabek 1.61/Makara 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek45115111172M. Makara52911138113
LAug 2 · 09:15O. Kaderabek40102111162M. Makara42121153113
LAug 1 · 10:15O. Kaderabek193790M. Makara331111113
WJun 21 · 12:19O. Kaderabek501011711113M. Makara4112611392
LJun 21 · 09:15O. Kaderabek44111211372M. Makara538101311113
WJun 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek43111011113M. Makara34712781
LJun 15 · 07:45O. Kaderabek371188101M. Makara4391111123
WJun 13 · 12:00O. Kaderabek4211119113M. Makara27541171
WJun 6 · 12:45O. Kaderabek341211113M. Makara2610880
WJun 6 · 09:45O. Kaderabek48111178113M. Makara4367111182
O. Kaderabek10
LSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792WSep 16 · 05:45O. Kaderabek2.101211910113L. Veigl1.67108111282LSep 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2.75111113592P. Wasik1.40691511113LSep 15 · 07:45P. Wasik1.4011119113O. Kaderabek2.75981191WSep 15 · 06:45L. Dobias1.8013391172O. Kaderabek1.911111115113WSep 15 · 05:15L. Adam2.0011891192O. Kaderabek1.73411115113LSep 13 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.36111111123O. Kaderabek3.009135101LSep 13 · 07:15O. Kaderabek3.25511851J. Chalupa1.3311811113LSep 13 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1.918580D. Gasparovic1.801111113LSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113
M. Makara10
WSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 14 · 16:43M. Makara1.911111117113R. Pisa1.8081361172LSep 14 · 15:45R. Pisa1.7313712113M. Makara2.0011111081LSep 14 · 14:45S. Rejent1.67131158113M. Makara2.10116111182WSep 14 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2069111582M. Makara1.611111813113LSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska2.251611113M. Makara1.5714890WSep 13 · 10:45O. Mezera2.2511147101M. Makara1.5771611123WSep 13 · 09:15M. Vyskocil2.1010560M. Makara1.671211113LSep 12 · 20:45M. Makara1.8341010D. Gasparovic1.831112113WSep 12 · 19:45Z. Sedivy1.737990M. Makara2.001111113
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