TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Trnka vs Pavel Chvatal 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711115511811––
Pavel Chvatal
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:31 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Pavel Chvatal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 61.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 2–2 Pavel Chvatal Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:31What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Trnka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1580 vs Chvatal 1636
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 60% vs Chvatal 100%
Chvatal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 40% vs Chvatal 80%
Chvatal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka -1 · Chvatal +5
Chvatal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Trnka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.44 / Chvatal 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Trnka)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13186529
Trnka1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 59 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Chvatal2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 32 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back34% 15 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTrnka2wins
AwayChvatal2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka66.7%2 of 3
AwayChvataln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka3Chvatal1n = 4Trnka took 3 of 4
S2Trnka4Chvatal0n = 4Trnka took 4 of 4
S3Trnka1Chvatal3n = 4Chvatal took 3 of 4
S4Trnka0Chvatal3n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTrnkaChvatalT − CBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.240.20.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaChvatalBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 280 vs 146 / 26651.4%54.9%144 / 280 vs 146 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaTrnka 1.44/Chvatal 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 24 · 08:05T. Trnka31711581P. Chvatal3811511113
LJul 31 · 11:35T. Trnka51141169112P. Chvatal501231111133
WJul 12 · 08:05T. Trnka331111113P. Chvatal259970
WApr 28 · 15:05T. Trnka46111148123P. Chvatal48791111102
T. Trnka10
LSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113WSep 24 · 06:05T. Trnka1.531111113O. Pros2.388790LSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:35T. Trnka2.1011811113J. Ruzicka1.67911181WSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113LSep 20 · 06:35S. Vyskocil2.6311123113T. Trnka1.447101191WSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860LSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192
P. Chvatal10
WSep 24 · 07:35O. Pros4.504121181P. Chvatal1.1711149113WSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal1.6711611113M. Flesar2.10711681WSep 23 · 17:40M. Chmelicek2.25119881P. Chvatal1.5791111113WSep 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115681WSep 23 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.83611711113T. Motacek1.8311911692LSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113
Upcoming Matches
T. Trnka
Nothing scheduled
P. Chvatal
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