TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Milan Flesar 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611911––––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 65.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 3–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:02What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chvatal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Chvatal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1636 vs Flesar 1454
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 100% vs Flesar 40%
Chvatal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 80% vs Flesar 30%
Chvatal
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +5 · Flesar -1
Chvatal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.53 / Flesar 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Chvatal)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13188271
Chvatal1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 43 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Flesar2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 46 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChvatal3wins
AwayFlesar1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChvatal leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvataln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFlesar33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal1Flesar3n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S2Chvatal2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S3Chvatal2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S4Chvatal3Flesar0n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricChvatalFlesarC − FBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.835.5+3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 266 vs 222 / 42754.9%52%146 / 266 vs 222 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.53/Flesar 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal3911611113M. Flesar32711681
WJun 11 · 10:05P. Chvatal521013711113M. Flesar45121111382
LApr 28 · 13:35P. Chvatal2661190M. Flesar351113113
WApr 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal3851111113M. Flesar30117661
P. Chvatal10
WSep 24 · 08:05T. Trnka1.44711581P. Chvatal2.6311511113WSep 24 · 07:35O. Pros4.504121181P. Chvatal1.1711149113WSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal1.6711611113M. Flesar2.10711681WSep 23 · 17:40M. Chmelicek2.25119881P. Chvatal1.5791111113WSep 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115681WSep 23 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.83611711113T. Motacek1.8311911692LSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272
M. Flesar10
LSep 24 · 08:35M. Flesar2.388111171O. Pros1.5311513113WSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113LSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal1.6711611113M. Flesar2.10711681WSep 23 · 09:03J. Ruzicka1.25961141M. Flesar3.7511114113LSep 23 · 08:35R. Neterda1.331111113M. Flesar3.250980LSep 23 · 07:35M. Flesar3.251071291J. Lovl1.33121110113LSep 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.281314123M. Flesar3.501112100LSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161WSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410
Upcoming Matches
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