TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Trnka vs Milan Flesar 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311211911––––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 47 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 61.7%
47 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 1–1 Milan Flesar Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Trnka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1591 vs Flesar 1467
Trnka
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 60% vs Flesar 20%
Trnka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 40% vs Flesar 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka +1 · Flesar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Trnka) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 1.50 / Flesar 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Trnka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13186820
Trnka1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 59 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Flesar2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 46 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTrnka1wins
AwayFlesar1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTrnkaFlesarT − FBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match24.030.0−6.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 279 vs 222 / 42751.6%52%144 / 279 vs 222 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaTrnka 1.50/Flesar 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka143290M. Flesar331111113
WJun 13 · 20:05T. Trnka341111123M. Flesar2789100
T. Trnka10
WSep 24 · 06:05T. Trnka1.531111113O. Pros2.388790LSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:35T. Trnka2.1011811113J. Ruzicka1.67911181WSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113LSep 20 · 06:35S. Vyskocil2.6311123113T. Trnka1.447101191WSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860LSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172
M. Flesar10
LSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal1.6711611113M. Flesar2.10711681WSep 23 · 09:03J. Ruzicka1.25961141M. Flesar3.7511114113LSep 23 · 08:35R. Neterda1.331111113M. Flesar3.250980LSep 23 · 07:35M. Flesar3.251071291J. Lovl1.33121110113LSep 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.281314123M. Flesar3.501112100LSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161WSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153
Upcoming Matches
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M. Flesar
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