TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Milan Flesar 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611116118––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 67.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 3–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Chvatal
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1626 vs Flesar 1467
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 80% vs Flesar 20%
Chvatal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 60% vs Flesar 30%
Chvatal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +3 · Flesar +1
Chvatal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.67 / Flesar 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chvatal)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13185695
Chvatal1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 43 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Flesar2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 46 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChvatal3wins
AwayFlesar1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChvatal leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvataln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFlesar33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal1Flesar3n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S2Chvatal2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S3Chvatal2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S4Chvatal3Flesar0n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricChvatalFlesarC − FBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.835.5+3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 265 vs 222 / 42754.7%52%145 / 265 vs 222 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.67/Flesar 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 24 · 06:35P. Chvatal3911611113M. Flesar32711681
WJun 11 · 10:05P. Chvatal521013711113M. Flesar45121111382
LApr 28 · 13:35P. Chvatal2661190M. Flesar351113113
WApr 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal3851111113M. Flesar30117661
P. Chvatal10
WSep 24 · 07:35O. Pros4.504121181P. Chvatal1.1711149113WSep 23 · 17:40M. Chmelicek2.25119881P. Chvatal1.5791111113WSep 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115681WSep 23 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.83611711113T. Motacek1.8311911692LSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113
M. Flesar10
WSep 24 · 07:05T. Trnka1.503290M. Flesar2.501111113WSep 23 · 09:03J. Ruzicka1.25961141M. Flesar3.7511114113LSep 23 · 08:35R. Neterda1.331111113M. Flesar3.250980LSep 23 · 07:35M. Flesar3.251071291J. Lovl1.33121110113LSep 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.281314123M. Flesar3.501112100LSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161WSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvatal
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M. Flesar
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