TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Martin Chmelicek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121188111181012
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:31 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 4–0 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:31What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chvatal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Chvatal
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1602 vs Chmelicek 1432
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 60% vs Chmelicek 80%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 60% vs Chmelicek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +2 · Chmelicek +4
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.50 / Chmelicek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Chvatal)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13182257
Chvatal1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 23 days ago (Aug 31) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 41 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Chmelicek2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChvatal4wins
AwayChmelicek0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChvatal leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal100%3 of 3
AwayChmelicekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal3Chmelicek1n = 4Chvatal took 3 of 4
S2Chvatal3Chmelicek1n = 4Chvatal took 3 of 4
S3Chvatal4Chmelicek0n = 4Chvatal took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricChvatalChmelicekChvatal − ChmelicekBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match37.528.8+8.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 259 vs 247 / 52654.1%47%140 / 259 vs 247 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.50/Chmelicek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 26 · 12:05P. Chvatal331111113M. Chmelicek162950
WJun 26 · 09:10P. Chvatal40115112113M. Chmelicek3871181112
WJun 26 · 07:05P. Chvatal361311123M. Chmelicek28117100
WJun 17 · 14:05P. Chvatal4181111113M. Chmelicek33118681
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.301113113M. Jinek3.4061130WSep 22 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.5311551192M. Chmelicek2.38711119113WSep 22 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.73613871M. Chmelicek2.00111111113LSep 22 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.83911111182P. Pesout1.83116613113LSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 20 · 21:44M. Chmelicek2.5071111123L. Vosyka1.501199101WSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113LSep 20 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.63910111192L. Vosyka1.44111298113WSep 20 · 18:05R. Neterda1.50371161M. Chmelicek2.5011118113
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