TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Kabelka vs Martin Chmelicek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111311811711––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Kabelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jan Kabelka at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 22–22 Martin Chmelicek Dead even across their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kabelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-22 in 44
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1435 vs Chmelicek 1383
Kabelka
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 60% vs Chmelicek 40%
Kabelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 80% vs Chmelicek 40%
Kabelka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka -2 · Chmelicek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kabelka)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 1.73 / Chmelicek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kabelka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13176710
Kabelka1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 33 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Chmelicek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 63 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back14% 13 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka6wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKabelka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka100%5 of 5
AwayChmelicek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kabelka4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Kabelka7Chmelicek3n = 10Kabelka took 7 of 10
S4Kabelka4Chmelicek3n = 7Kabelka took 4 of 7
S5Kabelka3Chmelicek2n = 5Kabelka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaChmelicekK − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.0+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 276 vs 243 / 52248.9%46.6%135 / 276 vs 243 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KabelkaKabelka 1.73/Chmelicek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kabelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka44101161252M. Chmelicek531291110113
WSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka331111113M. Chmelicek202990
WSep 6 · 18:35J. Kabelka4011511133M. Chmelicek337114111
LAug 16 · 20:35J. Kabelka49891111102M. Chmelicek46111184123
WAug 13 · 21:05J. Kabelka48111187113M. Chmelicek3984111152
WAug 13 · 20:35J. Kabelka351111133M. Chmelicek2669110
WAug 12 · 20:35J. Kabelka561391211113M. Chmelicek46151110642
LAug 10 · 20:05J. Kabelka33681181M. Chmelicek4211119113
WAug 3 · 21:45J. Kabelka49116135143M. Chmelicek527111111122
LAug 3 · 18:35J. Kabelka226880M. Chmelicek331111113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 22 · 19:35M. Jinek3.00961141J. Kabelka1.3611113113LSep 20 · 21:14J. Kabelka2.38116481R. Neterda1.5381111113LSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113WSep 20 · 19:05R. Neterda1.401311771J. Kabelka2.7515811113WSep 20 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.44713911102J. Kabelka2.631111116123WSep 18 · 21:48J. Kabelka1.831111113M. Cyrus1.839680WSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:05J. Kabelka1.91119119113M. Cyrus1.8071171182WSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 22 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.5311551192M. Chmelicek2.38711119113LSep 22 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.83911111182P. Pesout1.83116613113LSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 20 · 21:44M. Chmelicek2.5071111123L. Vosyka1.501199101WSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113LSep 20 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.63910111192L. Vosyka1.44111298113WSep 20 · 18:05R. Neterda1.50371161M. Chmelicek2.5011118113WSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113LSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.7511124542T. Motacek1.405101111113LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990
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