TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs David Hons 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191210––––
David Hons
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:21 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 — our read held David Hons at 70.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 6–11 David Hons Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Hons
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1448 vs Hons 1595
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 100% vs Hons 20%
Chmelicek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 70% vs Hons 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +5 · Hons -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.38 / Hons 1.53
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Hons)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13182702
Chmelicek2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Hons1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 59 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 42 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayHons7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%2 of 4
AwayHons83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek2Hons8n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Chmelicek5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmelicek3Hons2n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S5Chmelicek1Hons2n = 3Hons took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekHonsC − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.336.9−3.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 527 vs 262 / 51547.1%50.9%248 / 527 vs 262 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsChmelicek 2.38/Hons 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 18:35M. Chmelicek4394111182D. Hons49111188113
LSep 18 · 14:35M. Chmelicek32810140D. Hons391112163
LSep 16 · 12:35M. Chmelicek28711281D. Hons43111110113
LSep 12 · 20:35M. Chmelicek249690D. Hons331111113
WAug 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek47681111113D. Hons3911116652
LJul 18 · 18:05M. Chmelicek198830D. Hons331111113
LJul 18 · 10:05M. Chmelicek291121151D. Hons3941113113
LJun 30 · 15:35M. Chmelicek45116121152D. Hons50811146113
WJun 21 · 18:35M. Chmelicek331111113D. Hons268990
WJun 17 · 21:35M. Chmelicek331111113D. Hons185850
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.301113113M. Jinek3.4061130WSep 22 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.5311551192M. Chmelicek2.38711119113WSep 22 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.73613871M. Chmelicek2.00111111113LSep 22 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.83911111182P. Pesout1.83116613113LSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 20 · 21:44M. Chmelicek2.5071111123L. Vosyka1.501199101WSep 20 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.73101161252M. Chmelicek2.001291110113LSep 20 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.63910111192L. Vosyka1.44111298113
D. Hons10
LSep 23 · 14:35D. Hons1.73119111062T. Motacek2.00611512113LSep 20 · 17:14D. Hons1.6711551182J. Martin2.10511117113LSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons2.008940J. Lovl1.731111113LSep 20 · 15:05D. Hons2.2510111181R. Fnukal1.5712139113WSep 20 · 14:05D. Hons1.73311118123J. Martin2.00115711102WSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons1.80119511143T. Motacek1.91711118122WSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123
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