TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Jakub Nowak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711114118––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 70.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 53–5 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 5 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-5 in 58
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 48 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1459 vs Nowak 1232
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 227 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Nowak 40%
Koczyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 70% vs Nowak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +1 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Koczyba)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.44 / Nowak 2.63
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Koczyba)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13170350
Koczyba1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 318 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it80% 224 of 280
Nowak2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 240 of 660
Down 0–1, comes back22% 85 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 230
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba8wins
AwayNowak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%8 of 8
AwayNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba8Nowak2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S2Koczyba7Nowak3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S3Koczyba9Nowak1n = 10Koczyba took 9 of 10
S4Koczyba2Nowak1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaNowakK − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.428.8+8.6per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime859 / 1316 vs 677 / 174865.3%38.7%859 / 1316 vs 677 / 1748Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.44/Nowak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba47931113112J. Nowak501111411133
LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba35881631J. Nowak47111114113
WAug 5 · 20:00M. Koczyba52129812113J. Nowak471011111052
WJul 26 · 03:35M. Koczyba411119113J. Nowak3391770
WJul 1 · 20:00M. Koczyba331111113J. Nowak146350
WJun 28 · 16:50M. Koczyba331111113J. Nowak227780
WJun 17 · 01:45M. Koczyba331111113J. Nowak177460
WJun 11 · 17:35M. Koczyba331111113J. Nowak175750
WJun 2 · 22:25M. Koczyba331111113J. Nowak205870
WMay 31 · 05:10M. Koczyba341112113J. Nowak2151060
M. Koczyba10
LSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981WSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113LSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 17 · 20:00W. Jozala4.255640M. Koczyba1.161111113WSep 17 · 19:10G. Jurowicz2.9551020M. Koczyba1.361112113WSep 17 · 18:25M. Koczyba1.851111123P. Zemla1.7889100WSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182
J. Nowak10
WSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162WSep 21 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.805950J. Nowak1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113LSep 20 · 22:50P. Slosarczyk1.90111111113J. Nowak1.80135661LSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112WSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba
Sep 22 · 17:45M. Koczyba1.83G. Marud1.83—Sep 22 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.61G. Jurowicz2.20—Sep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.67M. Adamus2.10—Sep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 22 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.44J. Nowak2.63—Sep 22 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.67M. Adamus2.10—Sep 23 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.61G. Jurowicz2.20—Sep 23 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.83G. Marud1.83—Sep 23 · 16:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——Sep 23 · 16:50M. Koczyba—M. Adamus——
J. Nowak
Sep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 22 · 18:55J. Nowak2.00G. Marud1.73—Sep 22 · 19:40J. Nowak2.25G. Jurowicz1.57—Sep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.63M. Koczyba1.44—Sep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.25G. Jurowicz1.57—Sep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.00G. Marud1.73—Sep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 23 · 21:35J. Nowak—M. Lebek——Sep 23 · 23:10J. Nowak—K. Hetnar——
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