TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Pawel Slosarczyk
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115116116––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1113115116116––
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 9–16 Jakub Nowak Pawel Slosarczyk has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Nowak beat Slosarczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-16 in 25
Nowak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1208 vs Nowak 1214
Nowak
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 40% vs Nowak 60%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 30% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk +1 · Nowak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nowak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slosarczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 1.90 / Nowak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nowak)+2.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13163959
Slosarczyk1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 103 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back13% 26 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Nowak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 72 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 48 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk4wins
AwayNowak6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlosarczyk33.3%2 of 6
AwayNowak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk6Nowak4n = 10Slosarczyk took 6 of 10
S2Slosarczyk5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S3Slosarczyk3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S4Slosarczyk4Nowak5n = 9Nowak took 5 of 9
S5Slosarczyk3Nowak4n = 7Nowak took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlosarczykNowakS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.643.5−0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 880 vs 676 / 174838%38.7%334 / 880 vs 676 / 1748Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakSlosarczyk 1.90/Nowak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Slosarczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk30511591J. Nowak4011711113
LSep 2 · 07:10P. Slosarczyk561191111142J. Nowak54611138163
LAug 25 · 22:10P. Slosarczyk2257100J. Nowak341111123
WAug 8 · 06:25P. Slosarczyk47139113113J. Nowak49111171192
LJun 16 · 23:20P. Slosarczyk4511118872J. Nowak49791111113
WMay 11 · 01:35P. Slosarczyk45411118113J. Nowak3911471162
LMay 10 · 19:35P. Slosarczyk46115811112J. Nowak47611116133
WJan 12 · 24:35P. Slosarczyk4211118123J. Nowak339311101
WJan 11 · 20:35P. Slosarczyk529111110113J. Nowak4611971272
LJan 11 · 08:10P. Slosarczyk4111481172J. Nowak44611115113
P. Slosarczyk10
WSep 20 · 22:00O. Sokolowski1.766101191P. Slosarczyk1.9511127113LSep 20 · 20:45P. Slosarczyk2.8591260S. Szostok1.361114113WSep 20 · 19:10P. Slosarczyk1.401211123R. Ogon2.75109100LSep 20 · 18:00P. Slosarczyk1.93791181O. Sokolowski1.7711118113LSep 20 · 16:25P. Slosarczyk1.9561191282M. Sikon1.741161110113LSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk1.85511591J. Nowak1.8511711113LSep 19 · 17:05R. Wojcik1.77111311113P. Slosarczyk1.93715671LSep 19 · 15:55P. Slosarczyk1.82611110O. Sokolowski1.881113133WSep 19 · 14:45J. Slawomir1.6057110P. Slosarczyk1.971111133LSep 19 · 13:30J. Badura1.6011411113P. Slosarczyk1.98911781
J. Nowak10
WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113LSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112WSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk1.85511591J. Nowak1.8511711113LSep 20 · 04:40D. Fira1.801211113J. Nowak1.9010650LSep 20 · 03:55J. Michalski2.401111113J. Nowak1.514930LSep 20 · 01:55R. Szymik1.4491114123J. Nowak2.2911612101
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