TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13157705
Played Sep 19Finished
Jaroslaw Badura
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119411117118––
Pawel Slosarczyk
Away
1.98
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:28 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
119411117118––
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 23–18 Pawel Slosarczyk Pawel Slosarczyk has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Badura beat Slosarczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (55%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Badura
Correct
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1362 vs Slosarczyk 1230
Badura
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 80% vs Slosarczyk 40%
Badura
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 50% vs Slosarczyk 20%
Badura
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +3 · Slosarczyk +1
Badura
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slosarczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.60 / Slosarczyk 1.98
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Badura)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13157705
Badura1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 72 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it88% 52 of 59
Slosarczyk1.98
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 101 of 332
Down 0–1, comes back13% 26 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadura3wins
AwaySlosarczyk7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSlosarczyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadura25%1 of 4
AwaySlosarczyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura4Slosarczyk6n = 10Slosarczyk took 6 of 10
S2Badura6Slosarczyk4n = 10Badura took 6 of 10
S3Badura4Slosarczyk6n = 10Slosarczyk took 6 of 10
S4Badura4Slosarczyk5n = 9Slosarczyk took 5 of 9
S5Badura1Slosarczyk4n = 5Slosarczyk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaduraSlosarczykB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.045.6−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraSlosarczykBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 575 vs 331 / 87053.7%38.1%309 / 575 vs 331 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.60/Slosarczyk 1.98
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 07:30J. Badura58912188113P. Slosarczyk531110161152
LJun 21 · 23:35J. Badura50611111392P. Slosarczyk551113911113
LJun 21 · 17:35J. Badura32116961P. Slosarczyk4071111113
LJun 15 · 01:35J. Badura2612770P. Slosarczyk361411113
WJun 14 · 16:00J. Badura4291111113P. Slosarczyk35119781
LMay 10 · 21:10J. Badura52111391182P. Slosarczyk531311117113
LMay 10 · 16:50J. Badura3411411262P. Slosarczyk49811811113
LApr 21 · 21:35J. Badura521111712112P. Slosarczyk52771114133
WApr 21 · 20:45J. Badura4211119113P. Slosarczyk36881191
LApr 19 · 21:10J. Badura32616551P. Slosarczyk47111411113
J. Badura10
WSep 19 · 15:05S. Sojka1.857111791J. Badura1.8011619113WSep 19 · 14:20R. Wojcik1.90117711122J. Badura1.80411115143WSep 19 · 12:20J. Badura1.8611118113J. Slawomir1.83761161WSep 19 · 10:40J. Badura1.681211113O. Sokolowski2.0510960WSep 19 · 09:05M. Adamus1.78891231J. Badura1.93111110113LSep 19 · 08:20S. Sojka1.71101111113J. Badura2.00128651WSep 19 · 07:30J. Badura1.71912188113P. Slosarczyk2.001110161152LSep 19 · 06:20J. Badura1.8359111172R. Wojcik1.83111198113LSep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.783350J. Orszulik1.851111113LSep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.92911661R. Wiza1.8011811113
P. Slosarczyk10
WSep 19 · 14:45J. Slawomir1.6057110P. Slosarczyk1.971111133WSep 19 · 11:55S. Sojka1.941111671P. Slosarczyk1.6313111113LSep 19 · 11:05S. Sojka1.9411118113P. Slosarczyk1.63771161WSep 19 · 09:55P. Slosarczyk1.8511711113O. Sokolowski1.80511881LSep 19 · 08:45R. Wojcik1.8011179113P. Slosarczyk1.903151161LSep 19 · 07:30J. Badura1.71912188113P. Slosarczyk2.001110161152LSep 19 · 05:55M. Adamus1.5011123113P. Slosarczyk2.158101191LSep 18 · 16:20P. Slosarczyk3.3011831152O. Jadach1.21911118113LSep 18 · 15:05P. Slosarczyk2.40119841R. Skotniczny1.4771111113LSep 18 · 13:55P. Slosarczyk1.95912951W. Tobiasz1.76111011113
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