TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13157694
Played Sep 19Finished
Stanislaw Sojka
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111161719911––
Jaroslaw Badura
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:26 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeStanislaw Sojka to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
7111161719911––
H2H Stanislaw Sojka 1–0 Jaroslaw Badura Jaroslaw Badura has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Sojka beat Badura 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:26What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sojka 1402 vs Badura 1380
Sojka
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sojka 60% vs Badura 100%
Badura
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sojka 60% vs Badura 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sojka +2 · Badura +5
Badura
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badura form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSojka 1.85 / Badura 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Badura)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13157694
Sojka1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Badura1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 72 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it88% 52 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSojka1wins
AwayBadura0wins
Sojka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSojkaBaduraS − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match43.031.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSojkaBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 63 vs 311 / 57761.9%53.9%39 / 63 vs 311 / 577Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraSojka 1.85/Badura 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 08:20S. Sojka43101111113J. Badura31128651
S. Sojka10
WSep 19 · 13:55S. Sojka1.91121011113O. Sokolowski1.801012781WSep 19 · 12:45R. Wojcik1.717860S. Sojka2.001111113LSep 19 · 11:55S. Sojka1.941111671P. Slosarczyk1.6313111113WSep 19 · 11:05S. Sojka1.9411118113P. Slosarczyk1.63771161LSep 19 · 09:30S. Sojka1.8051161182R. Wojcik1.91115119113WSep 19 · 08:20S. Sojka1.71101111113J. Badura2.00128651WSep 19 · 06:45S. Sojka1.851113113M. Adamus1.8081190LSep 19 · 05:30S. Sojka1.851316511102O. Sokolowski1.801514118123LJan 3 · 05:40K. Juszczyk1.8313118113S. Sojka1.861181141WJan 3 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.405860S. Sojka1.501111113
J. Badura10
WSep 19 · 14:20R. Wojcik1.90117711122J. Badura1.80411115143WSep 19 · 13:30J. Badura1.6011411113P. Slosarczyk1.98911781WSep 19 · 12:20J. Badura1.8611118113J. Slawomir1.83761161WSep 19 · 10:40J. Badura1.681211113O. Sokolowski2.0510960WSep 19 · 09:05M. Adamus1.78891231J. Badura1.93111110113LSep 19 · 08:20S. Sojka1.71101111113J. Badura2.00128651WSep 19 · 07:30J. Badura1.71912188113P. Slosarczyk2.001110161152LSep 19 · 06:20J. Badura1.8359111172R. Wojcik1.83111198113LSep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.783350J. Orszulik1.851111113LSep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.92911661R. Wiza1.8011811113
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