TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13157700
Played Sep 19Finished
Rafal Wojcik
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1147117111151214
Jaroslaw Badura
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:27 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Wojcik to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
93 points played in total.
Set by set
1147117111151214
H2H Rafal Wojcik 4–1 Jaroslaw Badura Jaroslaw Badura has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Wojcik beat Badura 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:27What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Wojcik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wojcik 1361 vs Badura 1370
Badura
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wojcik 60% vs Badura 80%
Badura
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wojcik 60% vs Badura 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wojcik -1 · Badura +4
Badura
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badura form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWojcik 1.90 / Badura 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Badura)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13157700
Wojcik1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 42 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Badura1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 72 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it88% 52 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeWojcik4wins
AwayBadura1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderWojcik leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWojcikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBadura33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wojcik2Badura3n = 5Badura took 3 of 5
S2Wojcik3Badura2n = 5Wojcik took 3 of 5
S3Wojcik2Badura3n = 5Badura took 3 of 5
S4Wojcik3Badura1n = 4Wojcik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricWojcikBaduraW − BBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.035.2+4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWojcikBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 472 vs 310 / 57642.6%53.8%201 / 472 vs 310 / 576Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraWojcik 1.90/Badura 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 19 · 06:20R. Wojcik50111198113J. Badura4359111172
LSep 21 · 14:20R. Wojcik1810620J. Badura341211113
WSep 21 · 06:20R. Wojcik4011117113J. Badura27731161
WAug 23 · 15:55R. Wojcik549121111113J. Badura4111146372
WAug 23 · 09:55R. Wojcik3851111113J. Badura31118571
R. Wojcik10
LSep 19 · 12:45R. Wojcik1.717860S. Sojka2.001111113WSep 19 · 11:30R. Wojcik1.67137911113O. Sokolowski2.10111111662LSep 19 · 10:20M. Adamus1.78311811113R. Wojcik1.9111711952WSep 19 · 09:30S. Sojka1.8051161182R. Wojcik1.91115119113WSep 19 · 08:45R. Wojcik1.8011179113P. Slosarczyk1.903151161WSep 19 · 07:10R. Wojcik1.60312711123O. Sokolowski2.101110115102WSep 19 · 06:20J. Badura1.8359111172R. Wojcik1.83111198113LSep 13 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.271211113R. Wojcik3.2010880LSep 13 · 15:30F. Witczak1.4212129113R. Wojcik2.5510101191WSep 13 · 14:45R. Wojcik1.6511911113O. Sokolowski2.05511161
J. Badura10
WSep 19 · 15:05S. Sojka1.857111791J. Badura1.8011619113WSep 19 · 13:30J. Badura1.6011411113P. Slosarczyk1.98911781WSep 19 · 12:20J. Badura1.8611118113J. Slawomir1.83761161WSep 19 · 10:40J. Badura1.681211113O. Sokolowski2.0510960WSep 19 · 09:05M. Adamus1.78891231J. Badura1.93111110113LSep 19 · 08:20S. Sojka1.71101111113J. Badura2.00128651WSep 19 · 07:30J. Badura1.71912188113P. Slosarczyk2.001110161152LSep 19 · 06:20J. Badura1.8359111172R. Wojcik1.83111198113LSep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.783350J. Orszulik1.851111113LSep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.92911661R. Wiza1.8011811113
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