TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511117117811611
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Ogon to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
511117117811611
H2H Rafal Ogon 10–19 Jakub Nowak Rafal Ogon has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:23What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-19 in 29
Nowak
Correct
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1083 vs Nowak 1197
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 20% vs Nowak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 20% vs Nowak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -1 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 2.55 / Nowak 1.45
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Nowak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13163075
Ogon2.55
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 66
Nowak1.45
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 72 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 48 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgon3wins
AwayNowak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgon66.7%2 of 3
AwayNowak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S2Ogon5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S3Ogon3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S4Ogon4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5Ogon1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgonNowakO − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.541.0−1.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 419 vs 674 / 174625.3%38.6%106 / 419 vs 674 / 1746Avg sets wonper match1.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakOgon 2.55/Nowak 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 23:10R. Ogon381181181J. Nowak4113116113
LMay 10 · 23:10R. Ogon4312111191J. Nowak4414613113
WMay 10 · 17:10R. Ogon52812415133J. Nowak5611101113112
WJan 12 · 03:20R. Ogon4512148113J. Nowak4010121171
WJan 11 · 21:20R. Ogon4111118113J. Nowak35871191
LAug 26 · 22:00R. Ogon2251070J. Nowak341112113
LAug 26 · 18:00R. Ogon48101111792J. Nowak39122311113
LAug 24 · 22:50R. Ogon381081191J. Nowak4212118113
LAug 24 · 15:10R. Ogon175660J. Nowak331111113
LAug 22 · 23:30R. Ogon51119911112J. Nowak46411117133
R. Ogon10
LSep 20 · 16:00O. Sokolowski1.331111123R. Ogon3.0058100WSep 14 · 02:20R. Ogon2.2011716113R. Adach1.605111481LSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360LSep 14 · 24:00I. Szymanski1.801161211123R. Ogon1.90711149102LSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123LSep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42812861G. Sawicki1.46111011113LSep 13 · 20:00R. Ogon3.756850K. Juszczyk1.221111113WSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092LSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.501161031R. Adach1.4691112113LSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101
J. Nowak10
WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk1.85511591J. Nowak1.8511711113LSep 20 · 04:40D. Fira1.801211113J. Nowak1.9010650LSep 20 · 03:55J. Michalski2.401111113J. Nowak1.514930LSep 20 · 01:55R. Szymik1.4491114123J. Nowak2.2911612101LSep 20 · 01:10G. Sawicki1.851111113J. Nowak1.807570LSep 19 · 23:30D. Dytko1.906111211113J. Nowak1.7511814992WSep 19 · 22:40D. Fira1.75101191172J. Nowak1.95128116113LSep 19 · 21:55J. Michalski2.201111113J. Nowak1.577690WSep 19 · 19:55R. Szymik1.509590J. Nowak2.351111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Ogon
Sep 20 · 18:25R. Ogon4.55S. Szostok1.10—Sep 20 · 19:10R. Ogon2.75P. Slosarczyk1.40—Sep 20 · 20:00R. Ogon3.00M. Sikon1.33—Sep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95J. Nowak1.33—Sep 20 · 22:25R. Ogon3.10M. Sikon1.30—Sep 21 · 24:00R. Ogon3.05O. Sokolowski1.25—Sep 21 · 01:10R. Ogon2.75P. Slosarczyk1.30—Sep 21 · 02:45R. Ogon4.55S. Szostok1.10—
J. Nowak
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