TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125246
Played Sep 14Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1157111614118––
Rafal Adach
Away
1.60
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Adach to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
1157111614118––
H2H Rafal Ogon 1–5 Rafal Adach Rafal Ogon has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Adach beat Ogon 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Adach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Adach
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1063 vs Adach 1243
Adach
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 0% vs Adach 20%
Adach
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 10% vs Adach 40%
Adach
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -5 · Adach -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Adach) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adach form (20%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 2.20 / Adach 1.60
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Adach)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125246
Ogon2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 40 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 68
Adach1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it66% 33 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOgon1wins
AwayAdach5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderAdach leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgonn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAdach80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon1Adach5n = 6Adach took 5 of 6
S2Ogon3Adach3n = 6split evenly
S3Ogon2Adach4n = 6Adach took 4 of 6
S4Ogon1Adach3n = 4Adach took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricOgonAdachO − ABasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match31.039.2−8.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonAdachBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 427 vs 239 / 57824.8%41.4%106 / 427 vs 239 / 578Avg sets wonper match1.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.734.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdachOgon 2.20/Adach 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Adach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ogon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon301161031R. Adach4391112113
LSep 6 · 18:00R. Ogon44612123112R. Adach5511101011133
LAug 10 · 01:35R. Ogon236890R. Adach331111113
LAug 9 · 19:35R. Ogon187740R. Adach331111113
LApr 20 · 24:45R. Ogon31511781R. Adach3811511113
WApr 19 · 18:45R. Ogon4071111113R. Adach33116971
R. Ogon10
LSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360LSep 14 · 24:00I. Szymanski1.801161211123R. Ogon1.90711149102LSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123LSep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42812861G. Sawicki1.46111011113LSep 13 · 20:00R. Ogon3.756850K. Juszczyk1.221111113WSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092LSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.501161031R. Adach1.4691112113LSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101LSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630
R. Adach10
LSep 14 · 01:35P. Polok1.271211113R. Adach3.3010940LSep 13 · 23:35S. Krupa1.52116711113R. Adach2.3771111832LSep 13 · 22:50G. Sawicki1.88891111113R. Adach1.7611114982WSep 13 · 21:10I. Szymanski2.107680R. Adach1.651111113LSep 13 · 20:20S. Krupa1.451111113R. Adach2.432250LSep 13 · 19:35P. Polok1.241311143R. Adach3.40115120WSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.501161031R. Adach1.4691112113WSep 13 · 16:50K. Juszczyk1.3571560R. Adach2.801117113WSep 13 · 15:10G. Sawicki1.85591161R. Adach1.7911118113LSep 6 · 20:45R. Adach1.83114841W. Jozala1.8671111113
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