TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Damian Fira
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116115––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeDamian Fira to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1210116115––––
H2H Damian Fira 24–20 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nowak beat Fira 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fira
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-20 in 44
Fira
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fira 1283 vs Nowak 1195
Fira
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fira 40% vs Nowak 20%
Fira
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fira 50% vs Nowak 30%
Fira
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fira +1 · Nowak -4
Nowak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fira) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFira 1.80 / Nowak 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fira)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13156302
Fira1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 48 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Nowak1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 236 of 653
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 391
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 228
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFira3wins
AwayNowak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFiran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNowak75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fira2Nowak8n = 10Nowak took 8 of 10
S2Fira6Nowak4n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S3Fira6Nowak4n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S4Fira4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5Fira0Nowak3n = 3Nowak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiraNowakF − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.7−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiraNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 468 vs 673 / 174443.6%38.6%204 / 468 vs 673 / 1744Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiraFira 1.80/Nowak 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fira · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fira won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 22:40D. Fira48101191172J. Nowak48128116113
LAug 23 · 04:40D. Fira42101011111J. Nowak4212125133
LAug 22 · 22:40D. Fira47711121072J. Nowak531191012113
WAug 22 · 04:40D. Fira331111113J. Nowak259790
LAug 21 · 22:40D. Fira32511881J. Nowak4011711113
WAug 15 · 05:05D. Fira4391112113J. Nowak371191071
LAug 14 · 20:45D. Fira37119981J. Nowak4181111113
LAug 9 · 01:30D. Fira208750J. Nowak331111113
WAug 8 · 19:30D. Fira4071111113J. Nowak33119671
LJul 11 · 24:45D. Fira4579111172J. Nowak45111166113
D. Fira10
WSep 20 · 03:05R. Szymik1.6866120D. Fira2.071111143LSep 20 · 02:20D. Dytko1.521011912113D. Fira2.11129111082WSep 20 · 01:30D. Fira1.501111113J. Michalski2.405790LSep 20 · 24:20D. Fira1.687811121G. Sawicki1.8711113143LSep 19 · 22:40D. Fira1.75101191172J. Nowak1.95128116113WSep 19 · 21:05R. Szymik1.501111191D. Fira2.4041113113WSep 19 · 20:20G. Sawicki1.958970D. Fira1.741111113WSep 19 · 19:30D. Fira1.60471111113J. Michalski2.1511114342LSep 19 · 18:20D. Fira2.1059100D. Dytko1.601111123LSep 19 · 04:20D. Fira2.4386100K. Juszczyk1.391111123
J. Nowak10
LSep 20 · 03:55J. Michalski2.401111113J. Nowak1.514930LSep 20 · 01:55R. Szymik1.4491114123J. Nowak2.2911612101LSep 20 · 01:10G. Sawicki1.851111113J. Nowak1.807570LSep 19 · 23:30D. Dytko1.906111211113J. Nowak1.7511814992WSep 19 · 22:40D. Fira1.75101191172J. Nowak1.95128116113LSep 19 · 21:55J. Michalski2.201111113J. Nowak1.577690WSep 19 · 19:55R. Szymik1.509590J. Nowak2.351111113LSep 19 · 19:10D. Dytko1.661111113J. Nowak2.055530WSep 19 · 17:30G. Sawicki1.7599150J. Nowak1.981111173LSep 19 · 01:45J. Nowak1.3081112111A. Szurgot3.4011414133
Upcoming Matches
D. Fira
Nothing scheduled
J. Nowak
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