TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159896
Played Sep 20Finished
Damian Fira
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117119––––
Jakub Michalski
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Michalski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
115117119––––
H2H Damian Fira 59–48 Jakub Michalski Jakub Michalski has won 48 of their 107 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Fira beat Michalski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:35What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Fira
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-48 in 107
Fira
Correct
gap of 11 in 107, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fira 1263 vs Michalski 1212
Fira
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fira 60% vs Michalski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fira 30% vs Michalski 50%
Michalski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fira -2 · Michalski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Fira) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFira 1.50 / Michalski 2.40
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Fira)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13159896
Fira1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite55% won 45 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Michalski2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 77 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFira9wins
AwayMichalski1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFira leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFira100%6 of 6
AwayMichalski25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fira6Michalski4n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S2Fira5Michalski5n = 10split evenly
S3Fira7Michalski3n = 10Fira took 7 of 10
S4Fira5Michalski2n = 7Fira took 5 of 7
S5Fira5Michalski0n = 5Fira took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiraMichalskiF − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.8+4.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiraMichalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 465 vs 408 / 105343.4%38.8%202 / 465 vs 408 / 1053Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.533.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiraFira 1.50/Michalski 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.3%
Fira · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fira won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 19:30D. Fira44471111113J. Michalski3311114342
WSep 5 · 03:55D. Fira351311113J. Michalski2611960
WSep 4 · 21:55D. Fira351311113J. Michalski2811890
WAug 15 · 03:55D. Fira46114911113J. Michalski4891111892
WAug 14 · 21:55D. Fira47511911113J. Michalski4211811572
WAug 9 · 03:55D. Fira351311113J. Michalski2411940
WAug 8 · 21:55D. Fira3812411113J. Michalski341011581
WAug 8 · 03:55D. Fira47591111113J. Michalski4211116592
WAug 7 · 21:55D. Fira571116118113J. Michalski5081841192
LAug 1 · 23:30D. Fira30611491J. Michalski4111811113
D. Fira10
LSep 20 · 02:20D. Dytko1.521011912113D. Fira2.11129111082LSep 20 · 24:20D. Fira1.687811121G. Sawicki1.8711113143LSep 19 · 22:40D. Fira1.75101191172J. Nowak1.95128116113WSep 19 · 21:05R. Szymik1.501111191D. Fira2.4041113113WSep 19 · 20:20G. Sawicki1.958970D. Fira1.741111113WSep 19 · 19:30D. Fira1.60471111113J. Michalski2.1511114342LSep 19 · 18:20D. Fira2.1059100D. Dytko1.601111123LSep 19 · 04:20D. Fira2.4386100K. Juszczyk1.391111123LSep 19 · 03:05D. Fira1.618790G. Sawicki1.971111113LSep 19 · 01:55D. Fira1.957960O. Sokolowski1.621111113
J. Michalski10
LSep 19 · 23:55R. Szymik1.191111113J. Michalski3.508880WSep 19 · 23:05G. Sawicki1.5010570J. Michalski2.401211113WSep 19 · 21:55J. Michalski2.201111113J. Nowak1.577690WSep 19 · 20:45D. Dytko1.377101191J. Michalski2.8011124113LSep 19 · 19:30D. Fira1.60471111113J. Michalski2.1511114342LSep 19 · 17:55R. Szymik1.251111113J. Michalski3.707340WSep 12 · 04:40J. Michalski1.601211113A. Szurgot2.1110580LSep 12 · 03:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.706670WSep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.4177111182J. Michalski2.70111169113LSep 12 · 01:30J. Michalski2.9011670J. Orszulik1.321311113
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