TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13156311
Played Sep 19Finished
Damian Fira
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012118911116711
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeDamian Fira to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1012118911116711
H2H Damian Fira 24–19 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Fira
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-19 in 43
Fira
Wrong
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fira 1287 vs Nowak 1226
Fira
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fira 60% vs Nowak 40%
Fira
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fira 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fira +3 · Nowak -1
Fira
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fira) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFira 1.75 / Nowak 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fira)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13156311
Fira1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 45 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Nowak1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 233 of 648
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 390
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 227
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFira4wins
AwayNowak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFira66.7%2 of 3
AwayNowak71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fira3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S2Fira6Nowak4n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S3Fira6Nowak4n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S4Fira4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiraNowakF − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.338.5−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiraNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 463 vs 672 / 173943.6%38.6%202 / 463 vs 672 / 1739Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiraFira 1.75/Nowak 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fira · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 04:40D. Fira42101011111J. Nowak4212125133
LAug 22 · 22:40D. Fira47711121072J. Nowak531191012113
WAug 22 · 04:40D. Fira331111113J. Nowak259790
LAug 21 · 22:40D. Fira32511881J. Nowak4011711113
WAug 15 · 05:05D. Fira4391112113J. Nowak371191071
LAug 14 · 20:45D. Fira37119981J. Nowak4181111113
LAug 9 · 01:30D. Fira208750J. Nowak331111113
WAug 8 · 19:30D. Fira4071111113J. Nowak33119671
LJul 11 · 24:45D. Fira4579111172J. Nowak45111166113
WJul 10 · 22:20D. Fira44111210113J. Nowak368101261
D. Fira10
WSep 19 · 21:05R. Szymik1.501111191D. Fira2.4041113113WSep 19 · 20:20G. Sawicki1.958970D. Fira1.741111113WSep 19 · 19:30D. Fira1.60471111113J. Michalski2.1511114342LSep 19 · 18:20D. Fira2.1059100D. Dytko1.601111123LSep 19 · 04:20D. Fira2.4386100K. Juszczyk1.391111123LSep 19 · 03:05D. Fira1.618790G. Sawicki1.971111113LSep 19 · 01:55D. Fira1.957960O. Sokolowski1.621111113LSep 19 · 24:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.85111110113D. Fira1.70781281WSep 18 · 23:55D. Fira1.77811811113R. Adach1.9311911742LSep 18 · 22:20D. Fira1.86112641A. Ruszkiewicz1.8331111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 19 · 23:30D. Dytko1.906111211113J. Nowak1.7511814992LSep 19 · 21:55J. Michalski2.201111113J. Nowak1.577690WSep 19 · 19:55R. Szymik1.509590J. Nowak2.351111113LSep 19 · 19:10D. Dytko1.661111113J. Nowak2.055530WSep 19 · 17:30G. Sawicki1.7599150J. Nowak1.981111173LSep 19 · 01:45J. Nowak1.3081112111A. Szurgot3.4011414133LSep 19 · 24:35J. Nowak1.5792110I. Szymanski2.251111133WSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182LSep 18 · 22:10K. Durak1.2511611113J. Nowak3.75911761WSep 18 · 21:20J. Nowak2.001111113R. Szymik1.735790
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