TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13156307
Played Sep 20Finished
Grzegorz Sawicki
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Sawicki to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
117115117––––
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 24–24 Jakub Nowak Dead even across their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Nowak beat Sawicki 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:27What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-24 in 48
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1284 vs Nowak 1232
Sawicki
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 60% vs Nowak 40%
Sawicki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki +1 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sawicki) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 1.85 / Nowak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sawicki)+4.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13156307
Sawicki1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 131 of 380
Down 0–1, comes back20% 50 of 251
Down 0–2, comes back8% 13 of 159
Nowak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 72 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 48 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSawicki3wins
AwayNowak7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawicki50%2 of 4
AwayNowak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Sawicki3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S3Sawicki7Nowak3n = 10Sawicki took 7 of 10
S4Sawicki3Nowak5n = 8Nowak took 5 of 8
S5Sawicki2Nowak4n = 6Nowak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSawickiNowakS − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.544.1−2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 918 vs 673 / 174139.3%38.7%361 / 918 vs 673 / 1741Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SawickiSawicki 1.85/Nowak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sawicki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sawicki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 17:30G. Sawicki3399150J. Nowak391111173
LSep 5 · 06:05G. Sawicki30691141J. Nowak4211119113
WAug 29 · 23:55G. Sawicki44114117113J. Nowak4671191182
LAug 29 · 17:55G. Sawicki49118101192J. Nowak47711126113
WJun 28 · 23:35G. Sawicki341111123J. Nowak2688100
LJun 28 · 17:35G. Sawicki46911114112J. Nowak50117811133
WJun 28 · 03:55G. Sawicki52981311113J. Nowak45111111752
LJun 27 · 21:55G. Sawicki52149101182J. Nowak491211123113
LMay 3 · 23:35G. Sawicki42101511152J. Nowak551213811113
LMay 3 · 17:35G. Sawicki33941191J. Nowak4211119113
G. Sawicki10
WSep 20 · 24:20D. Fira1.687811121G. Sawicki1.8711113143LSep 19 · 23:05G. Sawicki1.5010570J. Michalski2.401211113LSep 19 · 21:30G. Sawicki2.2511613872D. Dytko1.546111111113LSep 19 · 20:20G. Sawicki1.958970D. Fira1.741111113WSep 19 · 18:45G. Sawicki2.60119147113R. Szymik1.41911121172LSep 19 · 17:30G. Sawicki1.7599150J. Nowak1.981111173WSep 19 · 04:40G. Sawicki1.901111153O. Sokolowski1.7559130WSep 19 · 03:05D. Fira1.618790G. Sawicki1.971111113WSep 19 · 02:20A. Ruszkiewicz1.6111139952G. Sawicki1.977111111113WSep 19 · 01:30G. Sawicki1.671111113R. Adach1.898970
J. Nowak10
LSep 19 · 23:30D. Dytko1.906111211113J. Nowak1.7511814992WSep 19 · 22:40D. Fira1.75101191172J. Nowak1.95128116113LSep 19 · 21:55J. Michalski2.201111113J. Nowak1.577690WSep 19 · 19:55R. Szymik1.509590J. Nowak2.351111113LSep 19 · 19:10D. Dytko1.661111113J. Nowak2.055530WSep 19 · 17:30G. Sawicki1.7599150J. Nowak1.981111173LSep 19 · 01:45J. Nowak1.3081112111A. Szurgot3.4011414133LSep 19 · 24:35J. Nowak1.5792110I. Szymanski2.251111133WSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182LSep 18 · 22:10K. Durak1.2511611113J. Nowak3.75911761
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