TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
2.95
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1214119119119––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Ogon to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
1214119119119––
H2H Rafal Ogon 10–20 Jakub Nowak Rafal Ogon has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Nowak beat Ogon 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:53What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (69%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Nowak
Wrong
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1057 vs Nowak 1232
Nowak
Wrong
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 0% vs Nowak 80%
Nowak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 10% vs Nowak 40%
Nowak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -5 · Nowak -1
Ogon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (0%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 2.95 / Nowak 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Nowak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13163742
Ogon2.95
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 66
Nowak1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 72 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 48 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgon3wins
AwayNowak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgonn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNowak87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon2Nowak8n = 10Nowak took 8 of 10
S2Ogon6Nowak4n = 10Ogon took 6 of 10
S3Ogon4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Ogon3Nowak5n = 8Nowak took 5 of 8
S5Ogon1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgonNowakO − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.1−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 423 vs 677 / 174825.1%38.7%106 / 423 vs 677 / 1748Avg sets wonper match1.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakOgon 2.95/Nowak 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.9%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ogon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon4151111862J. Nowak47117711113
LSep 6 · 23:10R. Ogon381181181J. Nowak4113116113
LMay 10 · 23:10R. Ogon4312111191J. Nowak4414613113
WMay 10 · 17:10R. Ogon52812415133J. Nowak5611101113112
WJan 12 · 03:20R. Ogon4512148113J. Nowak4010121171
WJan 11 · 21:20R. Ogon4111118113J. Nowak35871191
LAug 26 · 22:00R. Ogon2251070J. Nowak341112113
LAug 26 · 18:00R. Ogon48101111792J. Nowak39122311113
LAug 24 · 22:50R. Ogon381081191J. Nowak4212118113
LAug 24 · 15:10R. Ogon175660J. Nowak331111113
R. Ogon10
LSep 20 · 22:25R. Ogon3.0010680M. Sikon1.341211113LSep 20 · 20:00M. Sikon1.3312114113R. Ogon3.001041191LSep 20 · 19:10P. Slosarczyk1.401211123R. Ogon2.75109100LSep 20 · 18:25R. Ogon4.55811111132S. Szostok1.10118137113LSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113LSep 20 · 16:00O. Sokolowski1.331111123R. Ogon3.0058100WSep 14 · 02:20R. Ogon2.2011716113R. Adach1.605111481LSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360LSep 14 · 24:00I. Szymanski1.801161211123R. Ogon1.90711149102LSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123
J. Nowak10
LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112WSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk1.85511591J. Nowak1.8511711113LSep 20 · 04:40D. Fira1.801211113J. Nowak1.9010650LSep 20 · 03:55J. Michalski2.401111113J. Nowak1.514930LSep 20 · 01:55R. Szymik1.4491114123J. Nowak2.2911612101LSep 20 · 01:10G. Sawicki1.851111113J. Nowak1.807570LSep 19 · 23:30D. Dytko1.906111211113J. Nowak1.7511814992
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