TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611811––––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.34
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 73.4% is still 73.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
73.4%
73.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
1012611811––––
H2H Rafal Ogon 0–1 Mateusz Sikon Rafal Ogon has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sikon beat Ogon 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (69%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1077 vs Sikon 1365
Sikon
Correct
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 20% vs Sikon 80%
Sikon
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 20% vs Sikon 60%
Sikon
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon +1 · Sikon +3
Sikon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Sikon) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 3.00 / Sikon 1.34
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Sikon)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13163962
Ogon3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 66
Sikon1.34
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 56 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOgon0wins
AwaySikon1wins
Sikon leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOgonSikonO − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.038.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 424 vs 168 / 43125.2%39%107 / 424 vs 168 / 431Avg sets wonper match1.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match33.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonOgon 3.00/Sikon 1.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.9%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 20 · 20:00R. Ogon341041191M. Sikon3812114113
R. Ogon10
WSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:00M. Sikon1.3312114113R. Ogon3.001041191LSep 20 · 19:10P. Slosarczyk1.401211123R. Ogon2.75109100LSep 20 · 18:25R. Ogon4.55811111132S. Szostok1.10118137113LSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113LSep 20 · 16:00O. Sokolowski1.331111123R. Ogon3.0058100WSep 14 · 02:20R. Ogon2.2011716113R. Adach1.605111481LSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360LSep 14 · 24:00I. Szymanski1.801161211123R. Ogon1.90711149102LSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123
M. Sikon10
WSep 20 · 21:35M. Sikon2.371171111113S. Szostok1.5271181382WSep 20 · 20:00M. Sikon1.3312114113R. Ogon3.001041191WSep 20 · 18:45M. Sikon1.9011126113O. Sokolowski1.765101181LSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 16:25P. Slosarczyk1.9561191282M. Sikon1.741161110113LSep 20 · 15:35M. Sikon2.20512681S. Szostok1.57111011113LSep 16 · 16:40B. Madej2.20712167123M. Sikon1.5711101411102LSep 16 · 15:55K. Hetnar1.3311411113M. Sikon2.85811561WSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123WSep 16 · 13:10P. Kurek1.65611671M. Sikon2.0511911113
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