TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
4.55
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181113117311
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:11 and never touched — 86.3% is still 86.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
86.3%
86.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
8111181113117311
H2H Rafal Ogon 4–13 Sebastian Szostok Rafal Ogon has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (81%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Szostok
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1075 vs Szostok 1474
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 399 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 20% vs Szostok 80%
Szostok
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 20% vs Szostok 70%
Szostok
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -2 · Szostok +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 4.55 / Szostok 1.10
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Szostok)+5.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13163153
Ogon4.55
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 66
Szostok1.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 330 of 512
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 212 of 266
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgon2wins
AwaySzostok8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgon33.3%1 of 3
AwaySzostok85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S2Ogon3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S3Ogon3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Ogon1Szostok5n = 6Szostok took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgonSzostokO − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.638.5−6.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 420 vs 909 / 156725.2%58%106 / 420 vs 909 / 1567Avg sets wonper match1.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokOgon 4.55/Szostok 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.3%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 20 · 24:25R. Ogon196580S. Szostok331111113
LOct 19 · 20:45R. Ogon45111112562S. Szostok48391411113
LOct 13 · 24:00R. Ogon27731161S. Szostok4211119113
LOct 12 · 16:00R. Ogon34149110S. Szostok401611133
LOct 12 · 07:35R. Ogon25510100S. Szostok351112123
LOct 5 · 23:10R. Ogon31691151S. Szostok4111118113
WOct 5 · 17:10R. Ogon3961111113S. Szostok32118851
WOct 5 · 05:10R. Ogon46111149113S. Szostok4393111192
LAug 14 · 22:50R. Ogon28115391S. Szostok3851111113
LAug 14 · 19:35R. Ogon228590S. Szostok331111113
R. Ogon10
LSep 20 · 19:10P. Slosarczyk1.401211123R. Ogon2.75109100LSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113LSep 20 · 16:00O. Sokolowski1.331111123R. Ogon3.0058100WSep 14 · 02:20R. Ogon2.2011716113R. Adach1.605111481LSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360LSep 14 · 24:00I. Szymanski1.801161211123R. Ogon1.90711149102LSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123LSep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42812861G. Sawicki1.46111011113LSep 13 · 20:00R. Ogon3.756850K. Juszczyk1.221111113WSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092
S. Szostok10
LSep 20 · 17:10O. Sokolowski2.6011712153S. Szostok1.4131110131WSep 20 · 15:35M. Sikon2.20512681S. Szostok1.57111011113LSep 18 · 14:20W. Urban2.251111113S. Szostok1.574980WSep 18 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.3881381492S. Szostok1.5311111112113WSep 18 · 11:25K. Hetnar1.836790S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113WSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka2.5013128101S. Szostok1.50151011123WSep 18 · 08:10W. Urban2.258187121S. Szostok1.57111611143LSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851WSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163
Upcoming Matches
R. Ogon
S. Szostok
Sep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.40J. Nowak2.75—Sep 20 · 20:45S. Szostok1.36P. Slosarczyk2.85—Sep 20 · 21:35S. Szostok1.41M. Sikon2.60—Sep 20 · 23:10S. Szostok1.41O. Sokolowski2.60—Sep 21 · 24:25S. Szostok1.36P. Slosarczyk2.85—Sep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.40J. Nowak2.75—Sep 21 · 02:45S. Szostok1.10R. Ogon4.55—
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