TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Oliwier Sokolowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911511––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOliwier Sokolowski to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
511911511––––
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 7–4 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sokolowski beat Nowak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sokolowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Sokolowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1345 vs Nowak 1211
Sokolowski
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 60% vs Nowak 20%
Sokolowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 60% vs Nowak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski +2 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sokolowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 1.80 / Nowak 1.90
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Sokolowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13166000
Sokolowski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 80 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it82% 59 of 72
Nowak1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 236 of 653
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 391
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 228
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokolowski7wins
AwayNowak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSokolowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski62.5%5 of 8
AwayNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski8Nowak2n = 10Sokolowski took 8 of 10
S2Sokolowski6Nowak4n = 10Sokolowski took 6 of 10
S3Sokolowski6Nowak4n = 10Sokolowski took 6 of 10
S4Sokolowski4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5Sokolowski2Nowak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokolowskiNowakS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.5+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 571 vs 677 / 174843.4%38.7%248 / 571 vs 677 / 1748Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolowskiSokolowski 1.80/Nowak 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Sokolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski52119145133J. Nowak483111211112
WAug 26 · 01:45O. Sokolowski46101212123J. Nowak42121010101
WAug 12 · 08:45O. Sokolowski4271113113J. Nowak361161181
WAug 4 · 22:10O. Sokolowski44111912113J. Nowak47911111062
WJul 30 · 12:40O. Sokolowski331111113J. Nowak218490
WJul 30 · 06:30O. Sokolowski49161111113J. Nowak381461351
LJun 10 · 01:35O. Sokolowski361171171J. Nowak3721113113
LJun 3 · 05:10O. Sokolowski42121433102J. Nowak5610121111123
WMay 31 · 08:45O. Sokolowski331111113J. Nowak208570
LApr 12 · 11:55O. Sokolowski4211712752J. Nowak507111011113
O. Sokolowski10
WSep 21 · 24:45M. Sikon1.90812981O. Sokolowski1.80111011113WSep 21 · 24:00R. Ogon3.0581111111O. Sokolowski1.2511135133LSep 20 · 23:10O. Sokolowski2.607119151S. Szostok1.4111511173LSep 20 · 22:00O. Sokolowski1.766101191P. Slosarczyk1.9511127113WSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112LSep 20 · 18:45M. Sikon1.9011126113O. Sokolowski1.765101181WSep 20 · 18:00P. Slosarczyk1.93791181O. Sokolowski1.7711118113WSep 20 · 17:10O. Sokolowski2.6011712153S. Szostok1.4131110131WSep 20 · 16:00O. Sokolowski1.331111123R. Ogon3.0058100LSep 19 · 04:40G. Sawicki1.901111153O. Sokolowski1.7559130
J. Nowak10
LSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113LSep 20 · 22:50P. Slosarczyk1.90111111113J. Nowak1.80135661LSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112WSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk1.85511591J. Nowak1.8511711113LSep 20 · 04:40D. Fira1.801211113J. Nowak1.9010650
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