TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.51
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191412––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 71.0% is still 71.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
71.0%
71.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
1181191412––––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 57–17 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 17 of their 74 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nowak beat Szostok 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (61%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-17 in 74
Szostok
Correct
gap of 40 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1435 vs Nowak 1218
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Nowak 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Nowak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +2 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.51 / Nowak 2.40
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Szostok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13166003
Szostok1.51
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 330 of 512
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 212 of 266
Nowak2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 236 of 653
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 391
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 228
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok8wins
AwayNowak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowak25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok6Nowak4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S2Szostok3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S3Szostok6Nowak4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S4Szostok6Nowak3n = 9Szostok took 6 of 9
S5Szostok4Nowak0n = 4Szostok took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokNowakS − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.642.1+2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime913 / 1574 vs 677 / 174958%38.7%913 / 1574 vs 677 / 1749Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.51/Nowak 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.8%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok401158161J. Nowak4771111183
WSep 18 · 05:15S. Szostok4714512163J. Nowak47121110141
WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok4161311113J. Nowak341111571
WJul 1 · 16:25S. Szostok491011611113J. Nowak4112611842
WJul 1 · 02:10S. Szostok5410101112113J. Nowak46121271052
WJun 30 · 20:05S. Szostok46131111113J. Nowak401191371
WApr 12 · 13:55S. Szostok3711411113J. Nowak30711751
WApr 12 · 07:55S. Szostok51119118123J. Nowak46511911102
WMar 31 · 15:55S. Szostok55178136113J. Nowak561511111182
LMar 31 · 09:55S. Szostok2679100J. Nowak341111123
S. Szostok10
LSep 21 · 02:45R. Ogon4.55111211153S. Szostok1.107144131WSep 21 · 24:25P. Slosarczyk2.15115941S. Szostok1.6091111113WSep 20 · 23:10O. Sokolowski2.607119151S. Szostok1.4111511173LSep 20 · 21:35M. Sikon2.371171111113S. Szostok1.5271181382WSep 20 · 20:45P. Slosarczyk2.8591260S. Szostok1.361114113LSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 18:25R. Ogon4.55811111132S. Szostok1.10118137113LSep 20 · 17:10O. Sokolowski2.6011712153S. Szostok1.4131110131WSep 20 · 15:35M. Sikon2.20512681S. Szostok1.57111011113LSep 18 · 14:20W. Urban2.251111113S. Szostok1.574980
J. Nowak10
WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113LSep 20 · 22:50P. Slosarczyk1.90111111113J. Nowak1.80135661LSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112WSep 20 · 19:35S. Szostok1.401158161J. Nowak2.7571111183WSep 20 · 17:35M. Sikon1.80118101182J. Nowak1.86711128113WSep 20 · 16:50R. Ogon2.5551111862J. Nowak1.45117711113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Slosarczyk1.85511591J. Nowak1.8511711113LSep 20 · 04:40D. Fira1.801211113J. Nowak1.9010650LSep 20 · 03:55J. Michalski2.401111113J. Nowak1.514930
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
Nothing scheduled
J. Nowak
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