TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Lukasz Oracz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7119111191618––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:12 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 16-18
Point 92 set 4, 16-18 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 54.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 10–8 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1464 vs Oracz 1329
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Oracz 60%
Koczyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 80% vs Oracz 50%
Koczyba
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +2 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koczyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.80 / Oracz 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koczyba)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13176697
Koczyba1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 318 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it80% 224 of 280
Oracz1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 120 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayOracz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba80%4 of 5
AwayOracz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S4Koczyba3Oracz5n = 8Oracz took 5 of 8
S5Koczyba3Oracz2n = 5Koczyba took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaOraczK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.7−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime861 / 1318 vs 829 / 150965.3%54.9%861 / 1318 vs 829 / 1509Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.80/Oracz 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.7%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba30411961L. Oracz3911611113
LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba248880L. Oracz331111113
LAug 11 · 18:10M. Koczyba2266100L. Oracz341111123
LAug 7 · 19:40M. Koczyba4312115782L. Oracz471041111113
WJul 22 · 22:50M. Koczyba48119116113L. Oracz4581171182
WJul 15 · 22:25M. Koczyba46115118113L. Oracz4261161182
WJul 9 · 01:10M. Koczyba4381111133L. Oracz351158111
WJun 30 · 18:25M. Koczyba4013511113L. Oracz351111761
WJun 24 · 21:35M. Koczyba44117114113L. Oracz4881191192
LMay 21 · 15:35M. Koczyba43411611112L. Oracz49118116133
M. Koczyba10
WSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 18 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.4571111113G. Jurowicz2.50116691LSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 17 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.8511411113M. Tkocz1.85711981WSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113LSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 17 · 20:00W. Jozala4.255640M. Koczyba1.161111113WSep 17 · 19:10G. Jurowicz2.9551020M. Koczyba1.361112113WSep 17 · 18:25M. Koczyba1.851111123P. Zemla1.7889100WSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182
L. Oracz10
WSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113LSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113WSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 13:05J. Pelka2.00146591L. Oracz1.73121111113LSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.7391090O. Vincenec2.001112113LSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba
Sep 22 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.53G. Jurowicz2.38—Sep 22 · 20:05M. Koczyba1.67M. Adamus2.10—Sep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 22 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.44J. Nowak2.63—Sep 22 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.67M. Adamus2.10—Sep 23 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.61G. Jurowicz2.20—Sep 23 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.73G. Marud2.00—Sep 23 · 16:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——Sep 23 · 16:50M. Koczyba—M. Adamus——Sep 23 · 18:25M. Koczyba—K. Hetnar——
L. Oracz
Sep 22 · 18:10L. Oracz1.80J. Nowak1.91—Sep 22 · 19:20L. Oracz1.80M. Adamus1.91—Sep 22 · 20:30L. Oracz1.80G. Marud1.91—Sep 22 · 21:20L. Oracz1.91M. Koczyba1.80—Sep 22 · 22:55L. Oracz1.67G. Jurowicz2.10—Sep 23 · 24:10L. Oracz1.80G. Marud1.91—Sep 23 · 01:25L. Oracz1.73M. Adamus2.00—Sep 23 · 02:35L. Oracz1.67J. Nowak2.10—
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