TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Sporek vs Jakub Chmielowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
14121171210––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSzymon Sporek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-1
Point 50 set 3, 5-1 · our read held Szymon Sporek at 54.0%
50 points drawn · the score is 16 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Szymon Sporek 16–14 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Sporek
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1717 vs Chmielowski 1697
Sporek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 60% vs Chmielowski 100%
Chmielowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 50% vs Chmielowski 90%
Chmielowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +1 · Chmielowski +9
Chmielowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sporek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 1.833 / Chmielowski 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sporek)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13274507
Sporek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Chmielowski1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek5wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek100%4 of 4
AwayChmielowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S2Sporek6Chmielowski4n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S3Sporek5Chmielowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Sporek7Chmielowski1n = 8Sporek took 7 of 8
S5Sporek1Chmielowski4n = 5Chmielowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekChmielowskiS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.041.2−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 764 vs 327 / 67649.9%48.4%381 / 764 vs 327 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SporekSporek 1.83/Chmielowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sporek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sporek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 23:20S. Sporek361114113J. Chmielowski3091290
LAug 29 · 20:30S. Sporek486101111102J. Chmielowski52111289123
WJun 18 · 09:00S. Sporek4011711113J. Chmielowski35711981
WJun 12 · 10:20S. Sporek45111211113J. Chmielowski376101381
WJun 12 · 05:45S. Sporek44115116113J. Chmielowski4891181192
LJun 11 · 09:05S. Sporek4261181252J. Chmielowski511181110113
LJun 11 · 04:35S. Sporek47811111162J. Chmielowski48116137113
LApr 26 · 00:45S. Sporek2358100J. Chmielowski341111123
WApr 25 · 22:20S. Sporek4291111113J. Chmielowski34115991
LApr 25 · 20:15S. Sporek4391151172J. Chmielowski43116114113
S. Sporek10
WOct 10 · 15:00S. Sporek1.911111113K. Kolodziej1.809650LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123
J. Chmielowski10
WOct 10 · 15:25J. Chmielowski1.731111113D. Jadam2.005880WSep 23 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.83126611122J. Chmielowski1.831011119143WSep 22 · 22:55K. Rudomina2.63711131172J. Chmielowski1.44118157113WSep 22 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.00411431J. Chmielowski1.7311911113WSep 22 · 21:25J. Mitas1.831181011102J. Chmielowski1.83711125123WSep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.441111153K. Rudomina2.6355130WSep 22 · 18:30M. Minda2.25116511J. Chmielowski1.5791111113WSep 22 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.00114731J. Chmielowski1.7391111113WSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771LSep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.83111121172P. Blocho1.83137114113
Upcoming Matches
S. Sporek
Oct 10 · 17:40S. Sporek2.00F. Mlynarski1.73—Oct 10 · 18:50S. Sporek1.44M. Kolek2.63—Oct 10 · 20:30S. Sporek1.61D. Jadam2.20—Oct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek1.83J. Chmielowski1.83—Oct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek2.00F. Mlynarski1.73—Oct 10 · 23:45S. Sporek1.61D. Jadam2.20—Oct 11 · 00:10S. Sporek—M. Kolek——Oct 11 · 15:25S. Sporek—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 16:55S. Sporek—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 18:05S. Sporek—J. Chmielowski——
J. Chmielowski
Oct 10 · 17:20J. Chmielowski3.40K. Kolodziej1.30—Oct 10 · 18:30J. Chmielowski2.00F. Mlynarski1.73—Oct 10 · 19:40J. Chmielowski1.80M. Kolek1.91—Oct 10 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.83S. Sporek1.83—Oct 10 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.00F. Mlynarski1.73—Oct 10 · 22:35J. Chmielowski1.73D. Jadam2.00—Oct 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.80M. Kolek1.91—Oct 11 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 16:30J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 18:05J. Chmielowski—S. Sporek——
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