TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Pietraszko vs Jakub Chmielowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukasz Pietraszko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119411711311––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 67 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 56.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 2–2 Jakub Chmielowski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:49What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1642 vs Chmielowski 1619
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 60% vs Chmielowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 70% vs Chmielowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko +2 · Chmielowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 2.00 / Chmielowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chmielowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13171478
Pietraszko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back18% 27 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 94
Chmielowski1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 123 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it92% 56 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it73% 97 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePietraszko2wins
AwayChmielowski2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayChmielowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko1Chmielowski3n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
S2Pietraszko3Chmielowski1n = 4Pietraszko took 3 of 4
S3Pietraszko3Chmielowski1n = 4Pietraszko took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricPietraszkoChmielowskiP − CBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match36.236.20.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 866 vs 349 / 72150.6%48.4%438 / 866 vs 349 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiPietraszko 2.00/Chmielowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 2 · 23:20L. Pietraszko49811116132J. Chmielowski53117911153
LSep 2 · 20:30L. Pietraszko216960J. Chmielowski331111113
WAug 22 · 21:00L. Pietraszko331111113J. Chmielowski279990
WAug 22 · 15:00L. Pietraszko4291111113J. Chmielowski32117681
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 22 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.731112911113M. Minda2.00131011542WSep 22 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.57116118113K. Rudomina2.2521191132LSep 20 · 23:20K. Rudomina2.2011711123L. Pietraszko1.616113101WSep 20 · 22:35P. Blocho2.107980L. Pietraszko1.671111113LSep 20 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.80135561M. Kolek1.91111111113WSep 20 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.25741181L. Pietraszko1.5711116113WSep 20 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.801211123K. Rudomina1.91108100WSep 20 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.671111710123P. Blocho2.10891112102WSep 20 · 17:40L. Pietraszko1.8011118113M. Kolek1.91981181LSep 20 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.8064130A. Wos1.911111153
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 22 · 18:30M. Minda2.25116511J. Chmielowski1.5791111113WSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771LSep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.83111121172P. Blocho1.83137114113WSep 22 · 24:35K. Staszczyk2.00111181172J. Chmielowski1.73781113113LSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181WSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.856880J. Chmielowski1.361111113LSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101WSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113
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