TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kostyk vs Jakub Chmielowski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
2.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811811––––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 55.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 0–3 Jakub Chmielowski Kamil Kostyk has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Chmielowski beat Kostyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Chmielowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1440 vs Chmielowski 1630
Chmielowski
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 60% vs Chmielowski 80%
Chmielowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 60% vs Chmielowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +1 · Chmielowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 2.85 / Chmielowski 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 71%
Edge (Chmielowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13170368
Kostyk2.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 48 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Chmielowski1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 117 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 94 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostyk0wins
AwayChmielowski3wins
Chmielowski leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk2Chmielowski1n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S2Kostyk0Chmielowski3n = 3Chmielowski took 3 of 3
S3Kostyk0Chmielowski3n = 3Chmielowski took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostykChmielowskiK − CBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match27.038.0−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 471 vs 350 / 72149.7%48.5%234 / 471 vs 350 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiKostyk 2.85/Chmielowski 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.5%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 21 · 22:10K. Kostyk226880J. Chmielowski331111113
LSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk29114591J. Chmielowski3851111113
LJan 25 · 14:35K. Kostyk301136101J. Chmielowski4391111123
K. Kostyk10
LSep 21 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5712911123K. Kostyk2.2510118101WSep 21 · 21:00M. Kolek1.409111211102K. Kostyk2.75116145123LSep 21 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.205370J. Mitas1.611111113WSep 21 · 18:50K. Kostyk1.91461111143P. Blocho1.80111165122LSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.6311111123M. Kolek1.447118101LSep 21 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.8071111842M. Minda1.91117811113WSep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.3066100K. Kostyk1.551111123WSep 20 · 22:35P. Krukar2.2061120K. Kostyk1.571111143WSep 20 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.27711611113D. Kotwica3.0911511392
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 21 · 21:25J. Mitas2.0011113113J. Chmielowski1.73861191WSep 21 · 20:05J. Chmielowski1.4411117123M. Minda2.635811101WSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.80411116113J. Mitas1.9111541162LSep 21 · 15:45J. Chmielowski1.44991181P. Blocho2.6311115113LSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143WSep 10 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.911111107113M. Olbrycht1.8099121152WSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk
J. Chmielowski
Sep 22 · 24:35J. Chmielowski1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 22 · 15:45J. Chmielowski—P. Blocho——Sep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 17:40J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 18:30J. Chmielowski—M. Minda——Sep 22 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 22 · 21:25J. Chmielowski—J. Mitas——Sep 22 · 22:10J. Chmielowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 22 · 22:55J. Chmielowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 23 · 24:35J. Chmielowski—K. Staszczyk——
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