TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Kamil Kostyk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111612141151012
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 67.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 5–2 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kostyk beat Kolek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1626 vs Kostyk 1438
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Kostyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Kostyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Kostyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.40 / Kostyk 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13165449
Kolek1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 259 of 426
Up 2–0, closes it94% 89 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it81% 194 of 240
Kostyk2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 48 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKolek5wins
AwayKostyk2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderKolek leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKostyk33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek1Kostyk6n = 7Kostyk took 6 of 7
S2Kolek5Kostyk2n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S3Kolek6Kostyk1n = 7Kolek took 6 of 7
S4Kolek1Kostyk6n = 7Kostyk took 6 of 7
S5Kolek4Kostyk0n = 4Kolek took 4 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKolekKostykKolek − KostykBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match45.639.9+5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime724 / 1440 vs 233 / 46950.3%49.7%724 / 1440 vs 233 / 469Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.40/Kostyk 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 21 · 16:05M. Kolek367118101K. Kostyk3511111123
WSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek49811118113K. Kostyk4111761162
WJul 25 · 12:10M. Kolek50119118113K. Kostyk3541141152
WJul 24 · 21:45M. Kolek4181111113K. Kostyk31117851
LMay 10 · 10:30M. Kolek377911101K. Kostyk4111117123
WMay 10 · 06:40M. Kolek5713111210113K. Kostyk53158101282
WMay 10 · 04:10M. Kolek49911117113K. Kostyk4311691162
M. Kolek10
WSep 21 · 19:40M. Kolek1.5391211113P. Blocho2.381110441LSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113LSep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek1.805690M. Minda1.911111113LSep 21 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.6311111123M. Kolek1.447118101WSep 21 · 15:25M. Kolek2.0011114113J. Mitas1.73951161WSep 21 · 24:35P. Blocho2.5091191182M. Kolek1.50118119113WSep 20 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.755970M. Kolek1.401111113WSep 20 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.80135561M. Kolek1.91111111113WSep 20 · 21:25K. Rudomina2.5061141192M. Kolek1.50116116113LSep 20 · 20:05M. Kolek1.408611151B. Sulkowski2.7511117173
K. Kostyk10
LSep 21 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.205370J. Mitas1.611111113WSep 21 · 18:50K. Kostyk1.91461111143P. Blocho1.80111165122LSep 21 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.63114591J. Chmielowski1.4451111113WSep 21 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.6311111123M. Kolek1.447118101LSep 21 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.8071111842M. Minda1.91117811113WSep 20 · 23:20A. Mugowski2.3066100K. Kostyk1.551111123WSep 20 · 22:35P. Krukar2.2061120K. Kostyk1.571111143WSep 20 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.27711611113D. Kotwica3.0911511392LSep 20 · 21:05W. Gluszek3.25811118113K. Kostyk1.2711651182LSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153
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