TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
1.27
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711115611113119
Dawid Kotwica
Away
3.09
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
711115611113119
H2H Kamil Kostyk 6–2 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kotwica beat Kostyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:03What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (71%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Kostyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1385 vs Kotwica 1328
Kostyk
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Kotwica 80%
Kotwica
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 30% vs Kotwica 70%
Kotwica
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -3 · Kotwica +2
Kostyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.27 / Kotwica 3.09
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kostyk)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13163964
Kostyk1.27
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 49 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Kotwica3.09
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 140 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back19% 43 of 222
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKostyk6wins
AwayKotwica2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKostyk leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk100%5 of 5
AwayKotwica66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk5Kotwica3n = 8Kostyk took 5 of 8
S2Kostyk5Kotwica3n = 8Kostyk took 5 of 8
S3Kostyk7Kotwica1n = 8Kostyk took 7 of 8
S4Kostyk2Kotwica2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKostykKotwicaKostyk − KotwicaBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.031.4+6.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 461 vs 653 / 157849.5%41.4%228 / 461 vs 653 / 1578Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.27/Kotwica 3.09
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk34971171D. Kotwica4011117113
WAug 16 · 21:05K. Kostyk548131111113D. Kotwica4111155732
WAug 16 · 15:00K. Kostyk3911512113D. Kotwica348111051
WApr 7 · 24:35K. Kostyk331111113D. Kotwica205870
WApr 6 · 22:10K. Kostyk341111123D. Kotwica2798100
LOct 26 · 07:20K. Kostyk379117101D. Kotwica4211811123
WSep 6 · 10:35K. Kostyk361111143D. Kotwica2356120
WSep 4 · 16:55K. Kostyk371511113D. Kotwica2413560
K. Kostyk10
WSep 20 · 22:35P. Krukar2.2061120K. Kostyk1.571111143LSep 20 · 21:05W. Gluszek3.25811118113K. Kostyk1.2711651182LSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153LSep 20 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.3281141192A. Eliasz3.05118119113WSep 20 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.6081111113P. Krukar2.20118821LSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk1.29971171D. Kotwica3.3011117113WSep 20 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.231191111113W. Gluszek3.1591161362LSep 15 · 23:20L. Pietraszko1.831116113K. Kostyk1.8361440WSep 15 · 22:35B. Kwodawski2.50815111172K. Kostyk1.50111736113LSep 15 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.506670D. Solilo1.501111113
D. Kotwica10
WSep 20 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.889890D. Kotwica1.731111113WSep 20 · 21:30A. Mugowski1.70118111082D. Kotwica2.00511912113WSep 20 · 19:40D. Kotwica1.7151311113A. Eliasz2.001111881LSep 20 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.10661131P. Krukar1.6011118113WSep 20 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.831111123W. Gluszek1.8668100WSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk1.29971171D. Kotwica3.3011117113LSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981WSep 19 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.90111113113W. Gluszek1.801361191WSep 19 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.0511119113P. Staniszewski1.68791191
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