TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1158111191012811
Dawid Kotwica
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1158111191012811
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 52–45 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 45 of their 97 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mugowski beat Kotwica 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-45 in 97
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 7 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1430 vs Kotwica 1313
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 100% vs Kotwica 60%
Mugowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 70% vs Kotwica 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +7 · Kotwica +1
Mugowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.70 / Kotwica 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mugowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13161709
Mugowski1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 96 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it80% 75 of 94
Kotwica2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 140 of 386
Down 0–1, comes back19% 43 of 222
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski7wins
AwayKotwica3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMugowski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski100%5 of 5
AwayKotwica60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S2Mugowski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S4Mugowski2Kotwica4n = 6Kotwica took 4 of 6
S5Mugowski5Kotwica0n = 5Mugowski took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiKotwicaM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.3+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime920 / 2000 vs 652 / 157746%41.3%920 / 2000 vs 652 / 1577Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiMugowski 1.70/Kotwica 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kotwica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 15:25A. Mugowski559111111133D. Kotwica44115413112
WSep 19 · 15:25A. Mugowski541161114123D. Kotwica53811816102
WAug 31 · 24:10A. Mugowski561111914113D. Kotwica4987111672
WJul 30 · 22:55A. Mugowski331111113D. Kotwica249870
LJul 30 · 16:35A. Mugowski196850D. Kotwica331111113
LJun 11 · 24:10A. Mugowski347115111D. Kotwica4111611133
WJun 10 · 21:45A. Mugowski581215911113D. Kotwica53101711692
LJun 10 · 16:55A. Mugowski205960D. Kotwica331111113
WJun 6 · 24:35A. Mugowski341211113D. Kotwica2710980
WJun 5 · 22:10A. Mugowski44641111123D. Kotwica46111195102
A. Mugowski10
WSep 20 · 21:55A. Mugowski1.9011911113P. Krukar1.76311381WSep 20 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.52961111132A. Mugowski2.37111158153WSep 20 · 19:20A. Mugowski1.5411511113W. Gluszek2.25911781WSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113WSep 20 · 16:55P. Krukar2.1013841192A. Mugowski1.601111116113WSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:35A. Pilch2.0012890A. Mugowski1.731411113WSep 19 · 22:55P. Maruszak1.73871141A. Mugowski2.0011117113LSep 19 · 22:10B. Sulkowski1.8311115113A. Mugowski1.83781161LSep 19 · 21:25M. Woskowicz1.83141011113A. Mugowski1.831212881
D. Kotwica10
LSep 20 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.27711611113D. Kotwica3.0911511392WSep 20 · 19:40D. Kotwica1.7151311113A. Eliasz2.001111881LSep 20 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.10661131P. Krukar1.6011118113WSep 20 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.831111123W. Gluszek1.8668100WSep 20 · 16:15K. Kostyk1.29971171D. Kotwica3.3011117113LSep 20 · 15:25D. Kotwica2.10115413112A. Mugowski1.659111111133WSep 20 · 24:10D. Kotwica2.2011411113P. Krukar1.58311981WSep 19 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.90111113113W. Gluszek1.801361191WSep 19 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.0511119113P. Staniszewski1.68791191LSep 19 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.66119851A. Eliasz2.0091111113
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